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Call sheet · Q1'26

Wells Fargo (WFC)

Q1'26 earnings call · held April 14, 2026 · compared with the Q4'25 call · management-credibility review
8/12
Disclosure score
3 medium, 4 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is oil prices creating real-time consumer stress - gas jumped from 6% to 75% of card spend with disproportionate impact on lower-income customers. Everyone will focus on the strong 11% loan growth, but the binding constraint is accelerating margin compression that management expects to worsen next quarter despite the favorable rate environment. Most revealing quote: 'We are not yet growing accounts at the pace we expect to over time' - an admission they're missing internal consumer targets. The NDFI fraud was supposedly isolated but they stopped reporting subcategory loss rates, which would actually prove their confidence. My view changes if NIM compression exceeds 15 bps next quarter or if they provide granular consumer spending data by income segment.

The 30-second version

  • Oil price shock is the sleeper story - gas spending jumped from 6% to 75% of debit/credit spend
  • Strong loan growth (11% YoY) but margin compression accelerating despite rate environment
  • NDFI portfolio fraud loss was supposedly 'isolated' but they stopped breaking out loss rates by category

What changed this quarter

MetricQ4'25Q1'26Change
Diluted EPS$1.62 Q4$1.61 Q1 (+15% YoY)Strong double-digit growth maintained
Net Interest Income$12.9B Q4$12.7B Q1 (+5% YoY)2% QoQ decline despite balance sheet growth
Net Interest Margin2.96% Q42.83% Q113 bps compression, expects more next quarter
Total Loans$950B Q4$1.02T Q1 (+11% YoY)Broke $1T for first time since 2020
Revenue GrowthMixed Q4+6% YoY Q1Broad-based growth across all segments
Consumer Checking OpeningsStrong growth Q4+15% YoY Q1Accelerating but 'not yet at pace we expect'
Credit Card New Accounts+21% YoY 2025+60% YoY Q1Massive acceleration in account growth
Auto OriginationsDoubled YoY Q4More than doubled YoY Q1Continued momentum from VW/Audi partnership
Net Charge-Off Ratio45 bps Q445 bps Q1 (stable YoY)Credit quality holding steady
CET1 Ratio10.6% Q410.3% Q130 bps decline from balance sheet growth

Accountability tracked

7 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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