| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | August 4, 2026 | 7/12 | 2 high, 3 medium, 2 low flags | 7 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 30, 2026 | 9/12 | 3 medium, 7 low flags | 6 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | February 19, 2026 | 10/12 | 2 medium, 5 low flags | 4 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'25 | October 28, 2025 | 10/12 | 2 medium, 5 low flags | 6 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | Pending | 'No, we're absolutely on track to get to 10%-plus EBITDA over time' Multi-year target with no fiscal-year deadline attached; remains pending by definition, reaffirmed this quarter as well north of 10% without a new date. |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Third Wayfair store (Columbus) expected to open 'this summer,' fourth (Denver) in November Columbus opened earlier in the summer and Denver is now guided to open this fall, broadly consistent though Denver's month shifted slightly from the specific reference to the softer 'fall.' |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Management said 'at some point, we need to update the bridge for you all with the updates we have now' regarding the EBITDA margin bridge Not delivered this quarter; management only acknowledged the timing and cadence has shifted without providing an updated bridge. |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Q2 2026 CapEx guided to $55M-$65M Actual CapEx was $59M, within the guided range. |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin guided to 6%-7% Actual adjusted EBITDA margin was 6.9%, near the top of the guided range. |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Q2 2026 SOTG&A guided to $360M-$370M Actual SOTG&A was $361M, within the guided range. |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | Q2 2026 contribution margin guided to roughly 15% Actual contribution margin was 15.3%, slightly above guide. |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Q2 2026 gross margin guided to 29.5%-30.5% Actual gross margin landed at 30.0%, within the guided range. |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | Q2 2026 revenue growth guided to mid-single digits Actual Q2 net revenue growth came in at 7.5%, above the mid-single-digit guide. |
| Q1'26 | Missed | Gross margin likely at low end of 30-31% range Now guiding below 30% for first time - significant shift |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | EBITDA dollars grow faster than revenue Maintained pattern of EBITDA margin expansion |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Continue taking market share at accelerating rate Share spread now high single digits vs category down low single digits |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Q1 adjusted EBITDA margin 4.5-5.5% range Hit 5.2%, at high end of range |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Mid-single digit Q1 revenue growth guidance Delivered 7.4% vs mid-single digit guide |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Open Atlanta store 'early this year' Opened in April, outperforming Chicago opening - strong execution |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Launch Wayfair Rewards in Canada and UK 'in the months ahead' Canada launched last month, UK launched couple weeks ago - rare on-time execution |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Physical retail profitable expansion Chicago showing sustained 30% DMA outperformance after 1.5 years |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Meaningful AI deployment across operations Multiple AI implementations across catalog, customer service, operations |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Q4 adjusted EBITDA 5.5-6.5% margin Delivered 6.7%, at high end of range |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Q4 revenue mid-single digit growth Delivered 6.9% reported, 7.8% ex-Germany vs mid-single digit guide |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Wayfair Rewards expanding to Canada/UK in 2026 Reconfirmed launch plans |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Atlanta store opening early 2026 Reaffirmed timeline, on track |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Physical retail expansion replicating Chicago success Added Denver store, quantified Chicago impact: 50%+ kitchen accessories, 35%+ bathroom |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Technology replatforming completing to unlock developer velocity Fiona detailed multiple shipped AI features enabled by completed platform work |
| Q3'25 | Exceeded | Advertising spend in 11-12% range going forward from Q2 Came in at 10.6%, guided to 11-12% for Q4 acknowledging Q3 had one-time benefits |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | EBITDA growth faster than revenue growth going forward 70% EBITDA growth vs 9% revenue growth, confirmed this continues into 2026 |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Improve financial position and business strength Net leverage down to 2.8x from 4x+, retired most 2025/2026 debt early |
| Q3'25 | Exceeded | Drive profitable growth through market share gains in challenging market 9% revenue growth with 70% EBITDA growth and margin expansion exceeds expectations |
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