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Management credibility scorecard

Vistra (VST)

4 quarters tracked (Q3'25 to Q2'26) · latest call August 7, 2026
Get the next VST call sheet
100%
Kept of 12 resolved
12
Kept or exceeded
0
Missed
9
Still pending
Share count, 3 yrs/yr · accretor

Score History

QuarterCall dateDisclosureFinancial qualityKeptMissed
Q2'26August 7, 20263/123 medium, 2 low flags00Call sheet →
Q1'26May 7, 20268/122 medium, 5 low flags30Call sheet →
Q4'25February 26, 202611/121 medium, 7 low flags50Call sheet →
Q3'25November 6, 202511/122 medium, 4 low flags40Call sheet →
Disclosure: the 6-item rubric, each scored 0-2, out of 12. Financial quality: flagged indicators by severity. Kept and missed count the prior-quarter promises scored on that call.

Promise Ledger · All Quarters

MarkedStatusPromise
Q1'26PendingPerry operating capacity delivery commences December 2026, Davis-Besse December 2027
Timeline reconfirmed for Meta PPA execution
Q1'26ExceededContinue to evaluate share repurchase authorization and accelerate if market conditions warrant
Deployed $525M in first 4 months vs $1B for all of 2025
Q1'26PendingDeliver on retail's medium-term adjusted EBITDA target this year
Still on track despite Q1 weather impact
Q1'26DeliveredMartin Lake Unit 1 return from extended outage
Returned late Q1 and running well since
Q1'26DeliveredInitial energization at Comanche Peak still expected in Q4 2027 with full ramp by Q4 2032
Timeline reconfirmed, project remains on track
Q1'26PendingUpdate guidance ranges as well as adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity following the closing of the Cogentrix acquisition
Cogentrix still expected to close in second half 2026, so promise remains outstanding
Q4'25ExceededQ3: Multiple contracting opportunities could materialize by year-end
Delivered massive Meta nuclear deal in January, ahead of expectations
Q4'25PendingQ3: We continue to target approximately $270M adjusted EBITDA from Lotus assets in 2026
Maintained target, included in 2026 guidance
Q4'25PendingQ3: Permian gas units on track to deliver capacity in early to mid-2028
Reaffirmed timeline, equipment procurement progressing
Q4'25DeliveredQ3: We look forward to integrating Lotus assets and driving operational efficiencies
Closed in October, performed well during Winter Storm Fern
Q4'25DeliveredQ3: Nuclear upgrade studies to be completed by end of 2025
Studies completed, now have specific 433 MW uprate program with Meta
Q4'25PendingQ3: Pulaski and Newton sites remain on schedule for commercial operations by year-end 2026
Reaffirmed timeline, still on track
Q4'25DeliveredQ3: Oak Hill solar project reaching commercial operations by October 2025
Confirmed reached commercial operations last month as promised
Q4'25ExceededQ3: We are introducing guidance ranges for 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $6.8-7.6B
They maintained this range in Q4 and are tracking above midpoint already
Q3'25PendingContinue to evaluate remainder of development portfolio as long-term power agreements materialize
Ongoing, no specific updates provided
Q3'25DeliveredRoll forward hedge disclosures next quarter
Disclosed 70% hedged for 2027, will provide pricing next quarter
Q3'25DeliveredProvide 2027 EBITDA midpoint opportunity on third quarter call
Provided $7.4B-$7.8B range
Q3'25PendingLotus transaction close later this year or early next year
Remains on track, no timing changes
Q3'25DeliveredMore details on contracting opportunities over balance of the year
Announced Comanche Peak PPA and provided more specific customer engagement metrics
Q3'25PendingNuclear upgrade studies completed by end of year
Still on track, now providing 10% capacity increase estimate
Q3'25DeliveredIntroducing 2026 guidance ranges on third quarter call
Provided $6.8B-$7.6B EBITDA and $3.925B-$4.725B FCF ranges as promised
Each row is a promise from the prior call, scored against the quarter in "Marked". Kept-promise rate counts resolved promises only; pending is excluded.
Promise-kept rate counts resolved promises only (pending excluded).
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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