Earnings Call Intelligence Subscribe
Home › Call Sheets › VST › Q4'25
Call sheet · Q4'25

Vistra (VST)

Q4'25 earnings call · held February 26, 2026 · compared with the Q3'25 call · management-credibility review
11/12
Disclosure score
1 medium, 7 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is the free cash flow per share trajectory that nobody's talking about: $12.5+ in 2026 potentially reaching $22-25 by 2030 just from announced deals plus buybacks. That's not priced into a utility trading at current levels. The obvious headline is the massive Meta nuclear deal, but the real insight is they've now locked up nearly half their EBITDA in contracted revenue while maintaining 60% utilization on 26 GW of gas assets that can absorb load growth without major capex. The binding constraint isn't demand or capital, it's interconnection and regulatory approval timelines that determine when this massive contracted pipeline converts to cash. Most revealing quote: Moldovan saying FCF per share 'could be in the range of $22 to $25' by 2030 - that's a utility throwing off cash like a tech company. My view changes if Burke's absence signals deeper management issues or if PJM regulatory changes materially delay their Beaver Valley contracting opportunities.

The 30-second version

  • The sleeper story: Free cash flow per share trajectory is absolutely bonkers
  • Nuclear contracting machine hits another gear with 3.8 GW locked up
  • Management stopped attending their own earnings call

What changed this quarter

MetricQ3'25Q4'25Change
Full Year Adjusted EBITDA$4.4B (Q3 guidance: $5.7-5.9B)$5.912BHit top end of tightened range, +34% YoY
Full Year Adj FCF Before Growth$2.8B (Q3 guidance: $3.3-3.5B)$3.6BBeat midpoint by $300M, +29% YoY
2026 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance$6.8B+ midpoint opportunity$6.8-7.6B range (midpoint $7.2B)6% increase at midpoint despite hedged position
2026 Adj FCF Before Growth GuidanceNot provided in Q3$3.925-4.725BNew disclosure shows continued cash generation strength
2027 EBITDA Midpoint OpportunityNot provided$7.4-7.8BNew 2027 visibility, 70% hedged already
Generation Segment Q4 EBITDA$1.544B in Q3$4.290B full yearMassive Q4 implied at ~$1.2B+ vs Q3
Retail Segment Q4 EBITDA$37M in Q3$1.622B full yearQ4 retail bounced back strongly vs weak Q3
Nuclear Contracted Capacity1.2 GW (Amazon only)3.8 GW total contracted+2.6 GW from Meta deal, largest in US
Total Generation Fleet~40 GW~43 GW post-Cogentrix5.5 GW Cogentrix + 2.6 GW Lotus = major expansion
Combined Cycle Utilization~60%~60%Still significant room for load growth absorption

Accountability tracked

8 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged8 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
Read the full VST Q4'25 report Subscribe
About Research ↗Call SheetsCredibility IndexMissed PromisesScreens13F BooksData & InstitutionalPrivacyTermsSubscribe
This is a free preview. The full write-up and promise ledger are published to subscribers on Substack.
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

Follow what management promises next

Get free previews of our earnings-call research: the key changes, management scores, and questions worth investigating. Subscribe for full call sheets and deeper analysis.

Subscriptions are managed by Substack. If the form does not load, subscribe directly. Or follow the RSS feed.