| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | August 3, 2026 | 8/12 | 1 high, 3 medium, 4 low flags | 2 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | May 6, 2026 | 9/12 | 1 high, 3 medium, 3 low flags | 3 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | February 4, 2026 | 9/12 | 2 medium, 6 low flags | 5 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | Pending | I think we currently forecast something like a decline of 1 million daily active users in North America in Q2, but we also see a path to flat quarter-over-quarter if we can continue to land product improvement. Actual not stated on the call; management did not disclose a specific NA DAU figure in Q2, only characterizing it as 'stabilization' in response to an analyst question. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | which we believe puts us on track for achieving our goal of 60% or better for fiscal 2026. Gross margin reached 58% in Q2, up from 57% in Q1, trending toward but not yet at the 60% full-year goal; FY2026 period not yet complete. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | As a result, we expect to reduce our annualized cost structure by more than $500 million in the second half of 2026. Period (2H26) has not yet fully elapsed as of this call; the full $500M annualized figure was not explicitly reconciled on this call. |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | We estimate that adjusted EBITDA will be between $175 million and $200 million in Q2. Actual Q2 adjusted EBITDA was $250 million, above the high end. |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | Our guidance range for revenue in Q2 is $1.52 billion to $1.55 billion. Actual Q2 revenue came in at $1.6 billion, above the high end of guidance. |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Growing active advertiser base through scaling SMB go-to-market Active advertisers up 28% YoY, SMB spend up 30% in North America - clear momentum |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Infrastructure costs pivot from margin pressure to margin accretive Infrastructure cost growth only 7% vs much higher community growth, showing discipline |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Better calibrate investments in community growth with monetization potential Reduced community growth marketing spend, accepting North American DAU declines for profitability |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Launch Specs publicly in 2026 No specific date given, just 'later this year' and reference to June 16 AWE event for updates |
| Q1'26 | Missed | Pivot business towards more profitable growth with meaningful net income profitability Swung from $45M profit in Q4 to $89M loss in Q1 - opposite direction, though they blame timing |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Achieve 60% gross margins or better for fiscal 2026 Q1 at 57%, down from 59% in Q4 - trending wrong direction despite full-year commitment maintained |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Memory storage plans rollout Launched and contributing to 71% subscriber growth, flipping infrastructure costs to revenue. |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Specs public launch timeline Confirmed 2026 consumer launch, moved from developer-only to public availability. |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Continued growth in small/medium business advertising SMB contributed majority of ad revenue growth for sixth consecutive quarter, 28% advertiser growth. |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | 60% gross margin near-term goal Achieved 59% in Q4, guidance suggests exceeding 60% in 2026. |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Infrastructure cost efficiency improvements Cost per DAU stable at $0.86, infrastructure growth slowed vs revenue growth. |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Perplexity $400M revenue contribution in 2026 Excluded from Q1 guidance due to 'no mutual agreement on broader rollout.' Partnership execution failed. |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Reach 1 billion monthly active users 946M MAU achieved, but growth decelerated to 3M QoQ vs 60M YoY prior. Timeline softened. |
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