For context on Southern Bank's small-business lending footprint, see its SBA lending profile on US Lender Metrics, including approval volume, loan sizes and industry mix. SBA approvals are not the same as funded loans or recognized revenue; the profile states its reporting period.
| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'27 | October 22, 2026 | 10/12 | 1 high, 4 medium, 3 low flags | 1 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'26 | July 23, 2026 | 10/12 | 4 medium, 4 low flags | 2 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'26 | April 23, 2026 | 9/12 | 5 medium, 3 low flags | 1 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'26 | January 22, 2026 | 10/12 | 1 high, 4 medium, 3 low flags | 1 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q1'27 | Pending | Operating expense growth of mid-single to high-single digits for fiscal 2027 FY27 not complete; reaffirmed this quarter with comp/benefits cited as the largest driver. |
| Q1'27 | Pending | Normalized effective tax rate in the 19% to 20% range for fiscal 2027 Not mentioned at all on this call; actual not stated on the call, unverified whether on track. |
| Q1'27 | Pending | Charge-offs 'moving halfway back to historical levels' in the 3-5bps range over FY27 FY27 not complete; this quarter's annualized 4bps is already inside the long-run target but one quarter is not the full-year test. |
| Q1'27 | Delivered | ACL range of approximately 125 to 135 basis points Current ACL came in at 131bps, within the guided range. |
| Q1'27 | Pending | Mid-single-digit loan growth for fiscal 2027 FY27 not complete; Q1 annualized growth around mid-single digits but management flagged softer December and March quarters, reaffirmed guidance this call. |
| Q4'26 | Delivered | No material near-term NIM expansion without further Fed cuts; expect limited expansion into Q4 NIM printed flat at 3.67% QoQ as predicted, consistent with the no-material-expansion call. |
| Q4'26 | Missed | Effective tax rate run-rate guided to 19.5% to 20% Q4 effective tax rate came in at 11.9%, well below the guided range, due to a $1.7M tax credit benefit management flagged as non-recurring. |
| Q4'26 | Exceeded | Mid-single-digit loan growth for FY26, tracking toward the higher end given 5.4% growth FYTD Actual FY26 gross loan growth came in at 7.1% YoY, above the mid-single-digit guide range. |
| Q4'26 | Missed | NPA improvement expected this quarter and the following quarter NPAs rose $1.5M to $33.5M in the quarter, driven by an OREO transfer, directly contradicting the stated expectation of improvement. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Expect satisfactory performance of ag credits over the near term for the 2026 crop year The 2026 crop year is still in progress; management reiterated a similar expectation this quarter ("we expect to see satisfactory performance of our customers") but the underlying period has not concluded. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Mid-single-digit loan growth for fiscal year 2026 Fiscal year not yet complete (FY26 ends June); management upgraded confidence this quarter to reaching the "higher end" of that range after 5.4% growth fiscal-year-to-date, a positive revision but the period has not ended. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Charge-offs to return to more in line with historical averages over upcoming quarters Current quarter posted 4bps of net charge-offs versus 7bps of net recoveries last quarter; this is a single data point and management did not state whether this matches their internal historical baseline, so classification remains pending; actual long-run average not stated on the call. |
| Q3'26 | Delivered | NIM to see increased spread pick up in the March quarter due to decreasing deposit costs NIM rose from 3.57% to 3.67% this quarter, a 10bps sequential increase, consistent with the prior quarter's expectation. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | We estimate a less than 18-month earn back of the expense [related to card processor contract renegotiation] The 18-month window (from the October 2025 call) has not elapsed, and no update or interchange income earn-back progress was given on this call; actual not stated on the call. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | We had a great quarter of loan growth and feel optimistic about achieving mid-single-digit loan growth in the fiscal year Fiscal year 2026 is not complete. YTD growth is running ~3% with pipeline down to $159M from $195M; management reaffirmed the target but with notably less conviction language ('still in a good position' vs. 'optimistic'). |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | We would be surprised if charge-off activity remained at the level of the last two quarters...would not anticipate provisioning to be as high as it was this quarter Provision fell to $1.7M from $4.5M and the company swung to a 7bps net recovery versus 36bps of net charge-offs, beating the directional promise, though driven heavily by one relationship's recovery rather than broad-based improvement. |
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