| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | August 6, 2026 | 7/12 | 2 medium, 1 low flags | 0 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | May 11, 2026 | 10/12 | 3 medium, 4 low flags | 2 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | March 5, 2026 | 9/12 | 4 medium, 4 low flags | 1 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'25 | 2025-11-11 | 9/12 | 3 medium, 3 low flags | 3 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | Pending | We continue to expect 2026 CapEx to be elevated relative to prior years, largely due to refrigeration and infrastructure needs. Reaffirmed qualitatively this quarter ('CapEx to be elevated relative to prior years, largely due to investments in dilution refrigeration and FAB equipment') with no updated dollar figure provided in either quarter. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | We recently announced our intention to invest up to $100 million in the United Kingdom over the next several years. The investment intention was reiterated. A shorter call update does not establish a missed spending commitment; verify actual spending and the intended multi-year scope. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | As this year goes on, definitely expect us to introduce a higher fidelity 108 qubit... we will be talking about 150 qubits or higher. The prior statement discussed higher fidelity and 150 qubits, while expressly noting uncertainty about combining them. Do not convert that discussion into an unconditional delivery commitment. Year-end had not occurred. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Driving Cepheus-1-108Q to a medium 2 qubit gate fidelity of approximately 99.5% later this year. Target and later-2026 timeline were repeated. The reported median remained approximately 99.1%; year-end had not occurred. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | The $8.4M CDAC order for an on-premises 108-qubit system in India... we expect to recognize in the fourth quarter of 2026. Reaffirmed verbatim this quarter: 'still expect to recognize in the fourth quarter of this year'. Period has not ended; no change in timeline. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | We continue to expect the remaining Novera revenue to be recognized primarily in the second quarter of 2026. The call attributes Q2 revenue to recognition of previously announced Novera purchase orders. This supports activity but does not reconcile the exact remaining amount from the earlier order group. Full fulfillment is unverified. |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Continue advancing chiplet architecture toward 1,000+ qubit systems Cepheus-1-108Q successfully deployed as chiplet-based system, architecture validated |
| Q1'26 | Pending | More than 150-qubit system with 99.7% median 2-qubit fidelity around end of December 2026 Roadmap confirmed but no specific progress update provided |
| Q1'26 | Pending | C-DAC order revenue recognition in second half of 2026 Confirmed Q4 2026 recognition following installation and acceptance testing |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Remaining Novera revenue to be recognized primarily in Q2 2026 Confirmed expecting remainder of $5.7M (~$2.7M) in Q2, on track |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Strong year-over-year revenue growth in Q1 2026 driven by Novera shipments Revenue up 193% YoY to $4.4M vs $1.5M, driven by Novera QPU deliveries as promised |
| Q1'26 | Missed | 108-qubit system deployment with 99.5% median 2-qubit gate fidelity around end of March 2026 Achieved 99.1% median, 40 basis points below target. Shifted timeline to 'throughout 2026' |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Revenue growth from contracted orders in Q4 and 2026 $5.7M Novera and $8.4M C-DAC orders provide 2026 revenue visibility |
| Q4'25 | Missed | DARPA Phase B selection in coming months Timeline pushed to 'by the end of this year or thereabouts' |
| Q4'25 | Pending | 1000-plus qubit system by or around the end of 2027 Reaffirmed with 99.8% median 2-qubit gate fidelity target |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Deploy 150-plus qubit system by or around the end of 2026 Reaffirmed with upgraded 99.7% median 2-qubit gate fidelity target |
| Q4'25 | Pending | 99.5% median 2-qubit gate fidelity on 100+ qubit system Still committed to 99.5% fidelity for March 2026 108-qubit deployment |
| Q4'25 | Missed | 100-plus qubit chiplet-based quantum system by the end of 2025 Delayed to 'around end of March 2026' due to tunable coupler interactions - 3-month slip |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Sequential revenue growth momentum Revenue up from $1.8M to $1.9M sequentially, though margins deteriorated |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Quanta partnership to accelerate control system development Still 'coming up to speed,' expect control systems from Quanta by end 2026 |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Continue engagement with DOE and DoD despite NQI funding delays Secured new $5.8M AFRL contract, maintained government relationships |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Adequately funded R&D to hit milestones with current cash Confirmed adequate funding for current roadmap, but disclosed new fab CapEx needs |
| Q3'25 | Missed | Make it to DARPA Phase 2 before end of year Explicitly stated they were not selected for initial Phase B, now hoping for selection 'in coming months' |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Release 100-plus qubit chiplet system at 99.5% fidelity before end of 2025 Still committed with 6 weeks remaining in 2025, no indication of delays |
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