Rigetti Computing (RGTI)

The sleeper story is Rigetti telegraphing hundreds of millions in CapEx over the next 3 years for quantum fab expansion - the first quantified major capital commitment that transforms this from a pure R&D story to serious infrastructure investment. While everyone focuses on the DARPA Phase B miss, the real issue is their 2027 roadmap getting to 99.8% fidelity when they admit needing 99.9% for quantum advantage. The binding constraint isn't qubit count or chiplet scaling - it's that final 0.1% fidelity gap that separates technical achievement from commercial viability. CEO Kulkarni's quote reveals the challenge: 'For quantum advantage, we still think we need a 99.9% 2-qubit gate fidelity, as well as some form of error correction.' My view changes if they can specify the technical breakthrough needed for that final fidelity improvement or if gross margins stabilize above 35%.