| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | August 5, 2026 | 8/12 | 2 high, 4 medium, 2 low flags | 1 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 29, 2026 | 10/12 | 2 medium, 4 low flags | 2 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | February 4, 2026 | 11/12 | 6 low flags | 6 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | Pending | Midstream EBITDA run-rate target of $4.5 billion by year-end 2027 Multi-year target not yet due; reaffirmed this quarter with specific project milestones cited. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Western Gateway FID expected mid-to-late summer, targeting 2029 in-service FID has not occurred as of this call; language shifted to 'a month or so' with definitive documents still being finalized, a soft timeline slip. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Expect to recover approximately $500 million of the $893 million mark-to-market loss by year end, based on the forward curve Year end has not arrived; Q2 showed a $450M favorable MTM swing but this is not directly reconciled to the specific $500M recovery forecast. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Expect debt to be reduced to approximately $19 billion by end of 2026 Year-end 2026 has not arrived; net debt is already $16.5B at Q2 end and guided below $16B by year end, well ahead of the interim path described last quarter. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Total debt reduced to $17 billion by year-end 2027 Deadline has not arrived; management is now tracking well ahead of pace, with net debt already at $16.5B at Q2 end and a new lower interim target of ~$13.5-14B introduced. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Q2 2026 corporate and other costs guided to $430-450M Actual Q2 corporate and other costs were not explicitly stated on this call. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Q2 2026 turnaround expense guided to $120-150M Actual Q2 turnaround expense was not explicitly stated on this call. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Q2 2026 refining worldwide crude utilization guided to low-to-mid 90s Actual Q2 utilization percentage was not stated on this call. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Q2 2026 chemicals global O&P utilization guided to low 80s Actual Q2 chemicals utilization percentage was not stated on this call; only Q3 guidance (low 90s) was given. |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | Q2 2026 refining capture rate guided to 'mid-90s' as a good starting point Actual Q2 capture came in at 98%, beating the mid-90s guide. |
| Q1'26 | Missed | Mid-90s CPChem utilization Q1 2026 Guided low-80s for Q2 due to Middle East joint venture uncertainty |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Low-90s refining utilization Q1 2026 Achieved 95% utilization despite planned maintenance and pipeline impacts |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Return greater than 50% of operating cash flow to shareholders Maintained $778M returns despite negative operating cash flow in Q1 |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Total debt $17B by end-2027 Added interim target of $19B by end-2026 due to current debt increase |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Midstream adjusted EBITDA $4.5B by end-2027 Currently at ~$1B run rate, reaffirmed target despite Q1 volume impacts |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Refining controllable cost target $5.50/barrel by 2027 On track with Q1 at $6.21, $0.80 improvement YoY, normalized to low-$5.80s |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | LA refinery idling by year-end Final barrel processed as scheduled, shutdown executed safely |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | WRB acquisition closing Closed early Q4, integration synergies ahead of schedule |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | First phase Coastal Bend expansion completion Completed in Q4, running full capacity immediately |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Dos Picos Two gas plant commissioning Plant became fully operational and is filling as expected |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Reducing debt toward $17B target Net debt to capital improved from 41% to 38%, on track for timeline |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Targeting $5.50 per barrel controllable costs by 2027 Already at $5.57 excluding LA shutdown, two years ahead of schedule |
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