| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | July 29, 2026 | 5/12 | 3 high, 5 medium flags | 4 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 29, 2026 | 10/12 | 6 low flags | 4 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | February 4, 2026 | 12/12 | 5 low flags | 6 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Maintain 35% excess capacity Management reaffirmed >35% excess capacity. |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Keep dividend at $60 M per quarter Dividend held at $60.2 M in Q2. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Continue to win market‑share as the biggest winner over 10 years Volume still down YoY; share‑gain not yet evident. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Maintain sub‑70% operating‑ratio goal Q2 achieved 70.1%; Q3 guidance suggests OR will rise, not yet met. |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | Add $265 M capex in 2026 Target raised to $380 M, $115 M above original plan. |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Invest $2 B in capex over the past three years Capex to date $2 B, consistent with prior statements. |
| Q1'26 | Missed | Capital expenditures of $265M for 2026 Quietly reduced to $205M without explanation of the $60M cut. |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Would see weight per shipment as leading indicator of recovery Weight per shipment inflected positive in April, first time in quarters as they predicted. |
| Q1'26 | Missed | LTL revenue per hundredweight ex-fuel up 4.5% in Q1 Came in at 4.4%, 10 bps short of the seasonal expectation they set. |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Q1 revenue range between $1.25B-$1.30B Delivered $1.33B, above the high end of guidance range. |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Sequential OR improvement of 100-150 bps from Q4 to Q1 with +/- 20 bps range Delivered 50 bps improvement, beating the 100-150 bps increase (worsening) they guided to. |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | We currently expect our effective tax rate to be 25% for 2026 Q1 effective tax rate was exactly 25% as guided. |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Hold service centers in reserve rather than opening Zero service center openings in 2025, several held ready |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Right-size headcount with volume declines Headcount down 6% vs shipments down ~10% |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Maintain service metrics through downturn 99% on-time, 0.1% claims ratio maintained |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Lower CapEx in 2025 vs historical levels $415M vs typical 10-15% of revenue range |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Continue managing direct variable costs despite volume pressure Held at exact 53% achieved in record 2022 - remarkable execution |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Revenue per hundredweight growth of ~5% for Q4 2025 Came in at 4.9% ex-fuel, right at guidance |
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