| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | July 28, 2026 | 7/12 | 5 medium, 4 low flags | 5 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 28, 2026 | 11/12 | 3 medium, 3 low flags | 4 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | February 3, 2026 | 10/12 | 1 medium, 5 low flags | 5 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'25 | October 28, 2025 | 10/12 | 2 medium, 4 low flags | 6 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | Delivered | No major price increases in Q2 Management said pricing was neutral. |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | Operating cash flow >$800 M $860 M generated. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Maintain channel inventory at 11 weeks Q2 still at 11 weeks but some SKUs showing >16 weeks. |
| Q2'26 | On‑track | CapEx for VSMC to reach $2.4 B total Q2 added $174 M; cumulative $2.4 B announced. |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Gross‑margin expansion ~150 bps YoY Margin up 150 bps YoY to 58%. |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | Q2 revenue +18% YoY (adjusted for MEMS) Actual +19% YoY. |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | AI‑enabled processors to double their share of Industrial IoT revenue Share cited at 15% vs ~7% implied last year. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Data‑center revenue to exceed $500 M in 2026 No segment‑level data disclosed yet; Q2 still at $200 M baseline. |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Physical AI customer interest has been exceptionally strong Provided $1B+ funnel metric and 30+ POCs as evidence |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Auto inventory digestion largely behind us Auto returned to growth, consistent with normalization thesis |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Industrial & IoT expected to be up in low 20% range year-on-year Delivered 24% vs low 20s guidance |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | We expect all regions and all end markets to be up year-on-year in Q1 All segments delivered positive YoY growth as promised |
| Q1'26 | Missed | Distribution inventory will stay weak, consistent with our guidance Actually increased from 10 to 11 weeks, opposite of staying weak |
| Q1'26 | Pending | We expect to operate within our long-term financial model for the full year of 2026 On track with Q1 beat and Q2 guide, but full year not yet validated |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | No material customer restocking expected Confirmed no broad-based restocking in Q1 guide |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Close Kinara and Aviva Links acquisitions Both closed with regulatory approvals received |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Will provide full year update on accelerated growth drivers in Q4 Only said 'slightly below model' - no specific metrics provided |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Q4 non-GAAP EPS $3.28 at midpoint Delivered $3.35, $0.07 beat |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Q4 revenue $3.3B plus/minus $100M Delivered $3.34B, $35M above midpoint |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Distribution inventory may fluctuate between 9 and 10 weeks in Q4 Ended Q4 at 10 weeks as guided |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Close Kinara and Aviva Links pending regulatory approval Both acquisitions closed with all regulatory approvals received |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Distribution inventory to remain at 9 weeks Stayed at 9 weeks as guided, but added flexibility for Q4 |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Resume buybacks in Q3 consistent with capital allocation policy Restarted buybacks in September, $54M in Q3 plus $100M in early Q4 |
| Q3'25 | Exceeded | Q3 operating margin 33.7% at midpoint Delivered 33.8%, 10bps above midpoint |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Q3 gross margin 57% ±50bps Hit exactly 57.0%, at midpoint of guidance |
| Q3'25 | Exceeded | Q3 revenue guidance of $3.15B ±$100M Delivered $3.17B, $23M above midpoint and well within range |
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