Grade History
| Quarter | Disclosure Quality | Financial Quality |
|---|---|---|
| Q1'25 → | A- | B+ |
| Q2'25 → | A- | B+ |
| Q3'25 → | B+ | B+ |
| Q4'25 → | A | B+ |
| Q1'26 → | A- | B+ |
Promise Ledger · All Quarters
| Marked | Promise | Status | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'26 | ✅ | Japan launch preparations advancing for broad commercial launch PMDA approval on track Q2 with commercial launch following shortly | delivered |
| Q1'26 | ✅ | Continue gross margin expansion opportunities through 2026 Raised gross margin guide to 65% midpoint vs 64% prior | exceeded |
| Q1'26 | ✅ | Hold SG&A stable while making targeted R&D investments SG&A held flat, R&D increased by $50M as planned for accelerated trials | delivered |
| Q1'26 | ⏳ | Generate another strong cash flow year in 2026 Too early to assess but Q1 operational metrics supportive | pending |
| Q1'26 | ⏳ | Path to $2,000 Signatera ASP target remains on track ASP reached $1,250, guide implies $1,275 by year-end, still tracking to long-term target | pending |
| Q1'26 | ✅ | Continue to see Signatera sequential growth following trailing 4-quarter average pattern Delivered 24k sequential adds vs ~20k historical average | exceeded |
| Q4'25 | ✅ | Enroll FIND-CRC study in 2026 Started enrollment in May 2025, ahead of schedule | delivered |
| Q4'25 | ⏳ | Another $50 bump to Signatera ASP over near future Up $20 in Q4, implies $30 more to go | pending |
| Q4'25 | ✅ | Limited OpEx growth of roughly 10% in 2026 Confirmed at 9.5% at midpoint, slightly better | delivered |
| Q4'25 | ✅ | Launch expanded Fetal Focus panel before end of 2025 21-gene panel announced in January 2026 | delivered |
| Q4'25 | ✅ | Generate roughly $100M in cash flow for 2025 Generated $107M, $7M ahead of guidance | exceeded |
| Q4'25 | ✅ | Submit 7 new MolDx submissions by end of Q4 2025 Mentioned multiple submissions including Latitude tissue-free MRD | delivered |
| Q3'25 | ✅ | Revenue guide of $2.02B-$2.1B for 2025 Raised by $160M at midpoint to $2.18B-$2.26B | exceeded |
| Q3'25 | ⏳ | Continue steady linear process for commercial payer coverage over next 2 years Still guiding to 2-year timeline, showing green shoots but no acceleration | pending |
| Q3'25 | ✅ | Generate cash for the full year 2025 Upgraded from 'cash flow positive' to specific '$100M in free cash flow' | exceeded |
| Q3'25 | ✅ | PROCEED trial readout in late fall Advanced adenoma data now disclosed: 22.5% sensitivity, 91.5% specificity | delivered |
| Q3'25 | ✅ | Some ASP traction from biomarker states by Q3 2025 Mike confirmed 'notable progress on specific payers in several states' affecting Q3 Signatera accruals | delivered |
| Q3'25 | ⏳ | Meaningful contributions from new oncology reps late this year and early next year Q2 promise - reps hired in Q2, now saying 6-9 months to productivity puts timeline into 2026 | pending |
| Q2'25 | ⏳ | PROCEED trial readout toward end of year Now 3,500 patients enrolled, late fall timeline maintained | pending |
| Q2'25 | ⏳ | Cash flow breakeven for full year Generated cash in Q1 and Q2, well positioned for full year | pending |
| Q2'25 | ✅ | Continued gross margin expansion Held margins steady despite COGS headwind from new patient influx | delivered |
| Q2'25 | ✅ | Women's Health Q2 seasonality pattern Saw expected Q2 decline from Q1 strength as predicted | delivered |
| Q2'25 | ✅ | Sequential Signatera growth around 10K-12K units Delivered 20K units, nearly double the guided range | exceeded |
| Q2'25 | ✅ | Some ASP traction from biomarker states by Q3 2025 Chapman confirmed Q3 will have biomarker state benefit, notable progress on specific payers | delivered |
| Q1'25 | ✅ | Biomarker state wins flowing gradually over time First formal policy publications in Q4/Q1, but still gradual pace | delivered |
| Q1'25 | ⏳ | PROCEED study readout toward end of year Confirmed 3,000+ patients enrolled, study complete | pending |
| Q1'25 | ⏳ | Cash flow breakeven for 2025 Generated $23M in Q1, on track but increasing R&D spend | pending |
| Q1'25 | ⏳ | Tumor-naive MRD launch mid-2025 Still on track but language softened from specific 'mid-2025' to 'forthcoming' | pending |
| Q1'25 | ✅ | Revenue guide $1.87B-$1.95B for 2025 Raised to $1.94B-$2.02B, +$70M at midpoint after just one quarter | exceeded |
| Q1'25 | ✅ | Signatera sequential growth around 10K-12K units per quarter Delivered 16,500 units, best quarter ever, but management not raising forward targets | exceeded |
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