A
Overall grade
B+
Financial quality
The sleeper story is phased variants technology - LOD95 at 3 parts per 10 million puts them 10-100x ahead of competition and they've already signed a pivotal pharma trial. Everyone's focused on the 66.9% gross margins, but the real constraint isn't demand (>50% oncologist penetration) - it's the 30-35% of Signatera tests not yet reimbursed by Medicare. SG&A staying flat while revenue grows 25% shows the 2025 commercial buildout is paying off, but they're doubling R&D spend for DEFINE trial and MRD expansion. Chapman: 'we won't be shy about adding short-term OpEx for long-term results.' My view changes if early cancer detection PROCEED data doesn't translate to the larger FIND study - that's a $50M+ annual bet on 22.5% advanced adenoma sensitivity holding up.
The 30-second version
- Phased variants tech is the real story - LOD95 at 3 parts per 10 million
- Record 66.9% gross margins but the mix tells a different story
- SG&A staying flat while revenue grows 25% - but R&D spending is accelerating
What changed this quarter
| Metric | Prior | This quarter |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $592M (+35% YoY) | $666M (+40% YoY) |
| Gross Margin | 64.9% | 66.9% |
| Organic Gross Margin | 60.3% | 63.7% |
| Signatera Clinical Units | 202K (+21.5K sequential) | 225K (+23K sequential) |
| Signatera ASP | ~$1,200 | ~$1,225 |
| MRD Clinical Unit Growth | 21,500 units | 23,000+ units |
| DSO | 49 days | 47 days |
| True-up Revenue | $55M | $60M |
Accountability tracked
8 new promises made5 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises graded
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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