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Call sheet · Q3'26

Morgan Stanley (MS)

Q3'26 earnings call · held October 14, 2026 · compared with the Q2'26 call · management-credibility review
7/12
Disclosure score
2 medium, 2 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
Wealth NII declined despite guidance for a modest increase. That is the clearest promise-versus-result test. Strong $232B net new assets included a large IPO contribution, so track conversion and repeatability alongside Q4 NII. Funding benefits were already discussed for the following year; do not recast that as a newly missed deadline. Annual tax guidance and the year-end margin review remain pending.

The 30-second version

  • Wealth NII missed the sequential-growth outlook
  • Wealth flows were strong, with a large IPO contribution
  • Sequential declines need their year-over-year context

What changed this quarter

MetricQ2'26Q3'26Change
Firm Revenue$21.3B$20.3B-4.7% sequential, decelerating off record quarter
EPS$3.46$3.03-12.4% sequential
ROTCE26.6%22.6%-400 bps, but 5th straight quarter above 20%
ISG Revenue$11.0B$10.0B-9% sequential despite +18% YoY framing
Equities Revenue$6.3B$5.8B-8% sequential, still +41% YoY
Fixed Income Revenue$2.5B$2.0B-20% sequential, structured activity weak
Investment Banking Revenue$2.4B, +58% YoY$2.2B, +2% YoYYoY growth slowed from 58% to 2%; compare period bases and deal timing
Equity Underwriting Revenue$851M$525M-38% sequential
Wealth Management Revenue$8.9B$9.1B+New record, only growth engine firing
Wealth Pre-Tax Margin30.5%30.4%Flat, no expansion despite scale narrative

Accountability tracked

3 new promises made1 narrative shift flagged3 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
Read the full MS Q3'26 report Subscribe
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This is a free preview. The full write-up and promise ledger are published to subscribers on Substack.
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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