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Management credibility scorecard

McDonald's (MCD)

4 quarters tracked (Q3'25 to Q2'26) · latest call August 4, 2026
Get the next MCD call sheet
100%
Kept of 11 resolved
11
Kept or exceeded
0
Missed
12
Still pending
Share count, 3 yrs/yr · flat

Score History

QuarterCall dateDisclosureFinancial qualityKeptMissed
Q2'26August 4, 20269/122 medium, 1 low flags00Call sheet →
Q1'262026-05-0710/122 high, 3 medium, 1 low flags30Call sheet →
Q4'25February 11, 202611/126 low flags40Call sheet →
Q3'25November 5, 20257/122 high, 3 medium, 1 low flags40Call sheet →
Disclosure: the 6-item rubric, each scored 0-2, out of 12. Financial quality: flagged indicators by severity. Kept and missed count the prior-quarter promises scored on that call.

Promise Ledger · All Quarters

MarkedStatusPromise
Q2'26PendingLooking forward to introducing Red Bull-infused energy drinks throughout the year in the US beverage platform
Management states Red Bull Energizers are coming to the US 'in the coming weeks,' implying not yet delivered as of this call.
Q2'26PendingUS company-operated restaurant margins flagged as 'not acceptable,' with active work underway to address them
The cited Q2 call discussion did not update the US company-operated margin. Check the release and filing for the actual result before judging delivery.
Q2'26PendingFX tailwind to FY2026 EPS of $0.20 to $0.30
Full fiscal year has not ended; guidance was cut mid-year to $0.15, a revision to the range rather than a final miss, but directionally negative.
Q2'26PendingConfidence in reaching 50,000 restaurants by the end of 2027
Target revised to 2028. The original deadline has not passed, so record the revision rather than a completed deadline miss.
Q2'26PendingMcValue program 'locked in through the balance of the year' and management 'feel[s] very good about the plan' for US sales trajectory
A general expression of confidence is not a numerical sales promise. Management reported a Q2 execution shortfall, but the cited passage does not establish that the program itself was withdrawn.
Q1'26PendingChina on track for approximately 1,000 new restaurants in 2026
Reaffirmed commitment, maintained share despite macro pressures
Q1'26Pending50,000 restaurants by end of 2027 target
Still on track but now acknowledging pipeline review due to construction cost pressures
Q1'26PendingOperating margin to expand from 46.9% adjusted margin in 2025
Q1 margin was 46%, guidance still calls for mid-to-high 40s range expansion
Q1'26DeliveredNet restaurant expansion to contribute approximately 2.5% to system-wide sales growth
System-wide sales grew 6% constant currency with expansion contributing as planned
Q1'26ExceededEVM financial support estimated at approximately $35 million
Actual support came in below the estimate as program performed better than expected
Q1'26DeliveredWe're measuring EVM success through ability to gain share of low-income traffic and improve value scores
Gained share with low-income consumers in December, value scores improved meaningfully
Q4'25PendingChicken category share increase by at least 1 percentage point by end of 2026 versus December 2023
On track according to management, grew share across top 10 markets in 2025
Q4'25DeliveredDeploy the McCrispy Sandwich equity to nearly all major markets by the end of 2025
Achieved target deployment across nearly all major markets as planned
Q4'25PendingWe're on track to deliver our current year targets and our 50,000 restaurants globally by the end of 2027
Reaffirmed 50,000 target with 2026 opening acceleration to 2,600 restaurants keeping them on track
Q4'25ExceededInitial results are exceeding expectations with strong satisfaction scores across the board for beverage test
Moved from testing phase to firm launch commitment under McCafe brand, indicating results surpassed internal thresholds
Q4'25DeliveredWe opened 2,275 restaurants on top of the more than 2,000 restaurants we opened in each of the prior 2 years
Met the 2,275 target exactly as guided, maintaining accelerating pace
Q4'25DeliveredWe will measure success of our EVM program in 2 ways: first, by gaining share of lower income consumer traffic and second, by improving value and affordability experience scores
Explicitly stated both metrics improved: gained share with low-income consumers in December and saw meaningful increase in value/affordability scores
Q3'25ExceededContinue to target about 2.2% G&A as percentage of system-wide sales
Maintaining target despite $40M incremental marketing spend
Q3'25PendingTarget about 1/4 of 2,200 openings to be in our U.S. and IOM segments
No specific update on geographic mix provided
Q3'25DeliveredWe expect to open more than 1,600 restaurants in our IDL markets, including about 1,000 in China
China on track for 1,000 openings despite macro headwinds
Q3'25PendingWe continue to target a full year adjusted operating margin in the mid- to high 40% range
Still tracking toward target but margin pressures evident in McOpCo performance
Q3'25DeliveredUpcoming test in about 500 restaurants in the U.S. with a beverage lineup
Launched beverage test in Colorado and Wisconsin as promised
Q3'25DeliveredWe're working closely and collaboratively with our U.S. franchisees on this opportunity, and we're developing ideas for how we might address this
Delivered EVM program with 15% minimum discount and corporate co-investment
Each row is a promise from the prior call, scored against the quarter in "Marked". Kept-promise rate counts resolved promises only; pending is excluded.
Promise-kept rate counts resolved promises only (pending excluded).
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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