| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | July 22, 2026 | 7/12 | 2 high, 4 medium, 3 low flags | 1 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 29, 2026 | 9/12 | 2 medium, 4 low flags | 5 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | February 4, 2026 | 8/12 | - | 5 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'25 | October 29, 2025 | 9/12 | 3 medium, 3 low flags | 4 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | Pending | 2027 CapEx expected to significantly increase compared to 2026 Management reverted to vaguer 'long-term/multi-year view' framing this quarter rather than reiterating the specific 'significantly increase' language when directly asked. Period has not ended. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | FY2026 CapEx guidance of $180 billion to $190 billion Not reiterated or updated in this quarter's call despite H1 CapEx run-rate of roughly $80.6B ($35.7B + $44.9B); actual not restated on the call. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Wiz acquisition to create low single-digit percentage point headwind to Cloud operating margin for the remainder of 2026 Reiterated as an ongoing margin headwind this quarter alongside new third-party capacity costs. Period (remainder of FY2026) not yet ended. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Vast majority of TPU hardware agreement revenue to be realized in 2027, small percent this year Reaffirmed verbatim this quarter: ramp continues through 2026 with the vast majority landing in 2027. Fiscal period not yet ended. |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Begin delivering TPU hardware to a select group of customers in their own data centers Confirmed this quarter: TPU systems were delivered to customer data centers for the first time and revenue recognition began. |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Continued efficiency improvements Reduced AI response costs 30%, search latency 35% over 5 years |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | AI overviews driving search usage Queries at all-time high, AI overviews continue driving growth |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Gemini Enterprise momentum 40% QoQ growth in paid MAUs, partner ecosystem 9x growth |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Continue strong backlog growth Backlog nearly doubled to $462B vs $240B in Q4 |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Cloud growth driven by AI solutions and infrastructure AI solutions became primary growth driver for first time, 800% growth |
| Q1'26 | Missed | 2026 CapEx to be $175-185B Updated to $180-190B citing Intersect acquisition, but that's a $5B+ increase |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Gemini 3 release later this year [2025] Launched in December as promised |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Continue to see strong subscription revenue growth YouTube subscriptions and Google One both showed strong growth |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Growth rate in depreciation to accelerate slightly in Q4 Guided to 'meaningfully increase' for full year 2026, Q4 number not disclosed |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Significant increase in CapEx looking out to 2026 $175-185B guidance delivered as promised |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Remain in tight demand-supply environment in Q4 and 2026 Still supply constrained despite massive CapEx increases - worse than expected |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Expect CapEx in range of $91-93B for 2025 Came in at $91.4B, at bottom of range |
| Q3'25 | Exceeded | More billion-dollar cloud deals More deals in 9 months than prior 2 years combined |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Continued investment in TPU capacity Anthropic 1M TPU commitment shows scale |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | AI Mode global expansion in Q3 Rolled out globally across 40 languages |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | AI Max rollout would continue expanding Now hundreds of thousands of advertisers using it globally |
| Q3'25 | Missed | Would provide more detail on 2026 CapEx outlook on Q3 call Only said 'significant increase' and punted to Q4 call |
| Q3'25 | Missed | Cloud capacity would increase 'towards the end of 2025' Now saying tight supply environment continues through 2026 |
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