| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | August 5, 2026 | 8/12 | 2 medium, 5 low flags | 1 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | May 6, 2026 | 10/12 | 1 medium, 5 low flags | 2 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | February 25, 2026 | 8/12 | 4 medium, 3 low flags | 6 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'25 | November 7, 2025 | 9/12 | 7 low flags | 6 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | Pending | The exit rate now there in Dorado will drop a little bit. It'll go from a BCF target to just over $800 million a day. Year-end exit-rate target; actual not stated on the call. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | The near-term timeline has slipped slightly... so we anticipate having results in the second half of this year [for Bahrain]. Bahrain specifically remains unresolved; language softened to 'we hope to have results in the second half of the year', with operations described as intermittent due to conflict. |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | The near-term timeline has slipped slightly... so we anticipate having results in the second half of this year [for UAE/Bahrain]. For UAE specifically, two wells were drilled, completed and brought online in June, ahead of the guided second-half timeline. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | We expect to return at least 70% of free cash flow this year, which would represent a record annual cash return to shareholders. Reaffirmed this quarter: 'we reiterate our commitment to returning at least 70% of annual free cash flow'; full-year outcome not yet determinable. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | For the full year 2026, we are increasing oil production guidance by 2,000 barrels per day and NGL production guidance by 6,000 barrels per day while keeping total capital expenditures flat at $6.5 billion. Full-year period not yet ended; Q2 guidance reframed as 5% oil / 14% total production growth with capex still $6.5B, but the metric format switched from absolute barrel adds to percentage growth, making a direct like-for-like check harder. |
| Q1'26 | Missed | Exit rate of 1 Bcf per day gross production in 2026 (Dorado) Reduced to 'just over 800 MMcf' due to gas market conditions |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | We expect consistent year-over-year well productivity (Delaware) Confirmed consistent performance quarter over quarter |
| Q1'26 | Pending | In-basin self-sourced sand in Ohio by end of year Not mentioned this quarter, needs follow-up |
| Q1'26 | Pending | For 2026, we are targeting a low single-digit reduction in well costs Still targeting but acknowledged stable service market limits savings |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | We expect to run three rigs and three completion crews (Utica) completing 85 net wells Activity levels maintained as planned |
| Q1'26 | Missed | We anticipate having initial well results in the second quarter of this year (UAE/Bahrain) Timeline pushed to second half 2026, blamed on dynamic geopolitical situation |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Focus on volatile oil window in Utica Maintained oil focus while testing gas window wells acquired from Encino |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Remain active on share buybacks $2.5B repurchased vs $1.8B through 9M, returned 100% of FCF |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | 750 MMcf/d Dorado exit rate Met exit target, now targeting 1 Bcf/d for 2026 |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Continue driving down well costs through efficiency gains 7% well cost reduction achieved in 2025 across portfolio |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Q4 capex run rate as good starting point for 2026 $6.5B guidance roughly consistent with Q4x4 run rate |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Initial UAE well results in Q4 2025 Pushed to Q2 2026, cited as normal exploration timeline adjustment |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | $150M Encino synergies within first year from close Beat target ahead of schedule, achieved in ~6 months vs 12-month target |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Maintain pristine balance sheet post-Encino Leverage remains at target 1x at bottom cycle prices |
| Q3'25 | Exceeded | Return at least 70% of free cash flow to shareholders Committed to return nearly 90% for full year 2025 |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | International exploration moving forward in UAE and Bahrain Bahrain wells drilled in Q3, UAE first well spudding in Q4 as promised |
| Q3'25 | Exceeded | 2025 free cash flow of $4.3B at assumed commodity prices Raised guidance by $200M to $4.5B-10% beat vs original forecast |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Utica to become foundational asset alongside Delaware and Eagle Ford Management now refers to 'foundational operating areas' including Utica |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Encino integration progressing exceptionally well with $150M synergies Already dropping rig count from 5 to 4 while maintaining well completions-synergies tracking ahead |
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