| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | October 21, 2026 | 5/12 | 1 high, 4 medium, 3 low flags | 0 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'26 | July 15, 2026 | 6/12 | 1 high, 5 medium, 2 low flags | 2 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 22, 2026 | 10/12 | 1 high, 3 medium, 2 low flags | 0 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | 2026-01-28 | 9/12 | 2 high, 2 medium, 2 low flags | 4 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | Pending | These are one-time and non-recurring investments... that will not go on beyond 2026 2026 is not over, so this cannot be judged delivered or missed yet; however, management used the identical 'one-time' framing again this quarter, which raises doubt about whether the spend genuinely sunsets after 2026. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | We do expect the second-half Medicaid margin profile to improve from the second quarter Second half of 2026 is not yet complete; actual not stated on the call in citable terms, so this remains unresolved. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | We now expect to end 2026 with at least 1 million individual ACA members Target has been raised twice since (to 1.2M this quarter); actual Q3 ending membership of 1.3 million already exceeds the original target with one quarter left. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Our capabilities support our path to an operating margin of at least 2% this year (Medicare Advantage) Reiterated unchanged this quarter at 'at least 2%'; no upward revision despite stated outperformance. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | We are raising our full-year operating cash flow to at least $6 billion FY2026 not complete; subsequently raised to at least $6.5 billion this quarter despite a sequential quarterly OCF decline from $1.9B to $1.3B. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | We remain confident in returning to at least 12% adjusted EPS growth in 2027 off this higher earnings baseline 2027 has not started; reaffirmed this quarter off a now-higher $26.75 baseline. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | We are raising our 2026 adjusted diluted earnings per share guidance to at least $27 FY2026 is not complete; guidance was subsequently raised again to at least $29 this quarter, a positive revision, not yet a delivered/missed outcome. |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Regular assessment of Medicaid markets for strategic fit Delivered via D.C. exit announcement and 12-18 month exit timeline for others |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Complete CMS risk adjustment matter by July 31 On track per management, received confirmation sanctions won't be imposed |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | Operating cash flow of at least $5.5 billion Raised to at least $6 billion despite CMS settlement payment |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Continue to invest $1B+ in digital and AI capabilities Using one-time gains to fund rather than operating cash, suggests lower confidence in ROI |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Medicare Advantage margin of at least 2% in 2026 Q2 outperformed, on track to deliver |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Medicaid margin of approximately -1.75% for 2026 Tracking in line per Q2, but concerning they won't improve despite rate wins |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Achieve at least 12% adjusted EPS growth in 2027 Reiterated but now off higher base of $26 vs $25.75 prior |
| Q1'26 | Pending | 80% of prior authorization decisions in real time by 2027 Mentioned as 'remain on track to exceed' this commitment |
| Q1'26 | Pending | At least $2.3 billion share repurchases in 2026 On track with $1.1B completed in Q1 at average $300+ per share |
| Q1'26 | Pending | At least $5.5 billion operating cash flow in 2026 Strong Q1 of $4.3B puts on good trajectory for full-year target |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Medicaid operating margin approximately negative 1.75% for 2026 Q1 slightly favorable to expectations but maintaining prudent full-year stance |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Medicare Advantage operating margin of at least 2% in 2026 On track per management - portfolio repositioning supporting this target |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Return to at least 12% adjusted EPS growth in 2027 Reaffirmed with new baseline of $25.75 instead of prior $25.50 - promise maintained but baseline adjusted |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Disciplined capital allocation with focus on shareholder returns Maintained $2.3B buyback plan despite lower earnings guidance |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Return to at least 12% adjusted EPS growth in 2027 Reaffirmed but added qualifier about 'ending 2026 earnings baseline' |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Strong Carillon external growth momentum Confirmed best growth year ever but acknowledged membership headwinds |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Medicare margin improvement through disciplined actions Now guiding to at least 2% margin, meaningful improvement from prior expectations |
| Q4'25 | Pending | 2026 as a trough year for Medicaid Still maintaining this narrative but providing more specific loss expectations |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | At least 125 basis point year-over-year decline in Medicaid margins Guided to approximately -1.75% for 2026, which is 125 bps worse than -0.50% for 2025 |
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