| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | August 20, 2026 | 4/12 | 2 medium, 1 low flags | 2 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'26 | May 21, 2026 | 12/12 | 1 medium, 5 low flags | 3 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | February 19, 2026 | 10/12 | 2 medium, 5 low flags | 5 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | November 26, 2025 | 11/12 | 1 medium, 5 low flags | 7 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'25 | August 14, 2025 | 9/12 | 2 medium, 4 low flags | 2 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | Delivered | Small Ag & Turf operating margin guide of 14.5‑15.5% for FY26 Q3 margin hit 18.4% and guidance raised, exceeding prior target |
| Q3'26 | Delivered | Full‑year net sales for Construction & Forestry to be up ~20% YoY Q3 net sales were up 18% YoY, on track with FY guidance |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Net income outlook between $4.5-5.0 billion Maintained despite Brazil deterioration, shows confidence in other segments |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Continued progress on North American used inventories Model year 22-23 tractors down 45% from peak, breaking seasonal patterns |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Equipment operations margins to improve through 2026 Q2 at 16.9% vs Q1 at 5.9%, dramatic improvement though tariff refund helped |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | C&F net sales up around 15% Raised guide to up 20% based on stronger order book and road building demand |
| Q2'26 | Pending | SAT net sales up about 15% for full year Q2 came in at +16% so tracking well, confidence appears justified |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Net sales for PPA down between 5% and 10% for full year Maintained guidance despite Q2 at -14% YoY, implies significant H2 improvement needed |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Continued used inventory reduction progress (Q4 2025) 20%+ sequential reduction in late model tractors |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Lean production start to fiscal year in large ag (Q4 2025) Q1 production lower than typical, exactly as planned |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Equipment operations margins impacted by tariffs and mix (Q4 2025) 5.9% Q1 margins reflected exactly the headwinds called out |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Construction industry flat to up 5% (Q4 2025 guide) Upgraded to up around 5% for both construction and compact construction |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Small ag industry flat to up 5% (Q4 2025 guide) Maintained same guide, business performing well with 24% growth |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Large ag industry down 15-20% in North America (Q4 2025 guide) Still guiding to same range, but order velocity commentary suggests lower end more likely |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Build roughly in line with retail demand in large ag (Q3 commitment) Maintained inventory discipline with 220HP+ tractors at 17-year low unit levels |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Continue driving down used inventory levels (Q3 focus) Model year 2022-2023 8R tractors down 25% from March peak, combines down 25% from spring 2024 peak |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Small Ag and Turf segment operating margin between 12% and 13.5% (Q3 guide) Delivered within guided range for full year |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Tariff impact forecast of nearly $600M pretax (updated Q3) Hit the $600M pretax impact as forecasted |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | PPA operating margin between 15.5% and 17% (Q3 guide) Achieved 16.8% for full year 2025 per implied calculations |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Cash flow from equipment operations $4.5B to $5.5B (Q3 guide) Generated $5.1B, solidly within range |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Full year net income forecast between $4.75B and $5.25B (Q3 guide) Achieved $5B net income, within guided range at upper end |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Q2: Production costs to remain favorable Confirmed production costs favorable even inclusive of tariff impacts |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Q2: C&F operating margin 8.5-11.5% Narrowed to 8.5-10% due to higher tariff costs and pricing pressure |
| Q3'25 | Exceeded | Q2: Small Ag and turf sales down 10-15% Revised upward to down about 10% due to better turf performance |
| Q3'25 | Missed | Q2: Tariff impact 'just over $500M' for full year Raised to 'nearly $600M' due to steel and Europe reciprocal rate changes |
| Q3'25 | Missed | Q2: Expected to improve net price realization in back half Actually went negative on price in Q3 due to pool fund accruals |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Q2: 'Confident in our plan to reduce used tractor inventories' Made progress (late model equipment down 10%+) but admitted 'more work to do' - slower than implied |
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