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Management credibility scorecard

CAVA Group (CAVA)

3 quarters tracked (Q3'25 to Q1'26) · latest call May 19, 2026
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77%
Kept of 13 resolved
10
Kept or exceeded
3
Missed
6
Still pending
Share count, 3 yrs/yr · flat

Score History

QuarterCall dateDisclosureFinancial qualityKeptMissed
Q1'26May 19, 202611/126 low flags30Call sheet →
Q4'25February 24, 202610/123 high, 2 medium, 1 low flags41Call sheet →
Q3'25November 4, 20259/123 medium, 3 low flags32Call sheet →
Disclosure: the 6-item rubric, each scored 0-2, out of 12. Financial quality: flagged indicators by severity. Kept and missed count the prior-quarter promises scored on that call.

Promise Ledger · All Quarters

MarkedStatusPromise
Q1'26PendingStock-based comp $22-24M including GM equity grants
Reaffirmed range, noted 55% front-loaded in first half due to vesting timing.
Q1'26PendingKDS rollout completion in 2026
370 of 439 locations complete, 69 retrofits remaining. Should finish in 2026.
Q1'26PendingAGM program 60% filled with completion by mid-year
At 60% as of Q1, reaffirmed mid-year completion target. On track.
Q1'26ExceededRestaurant-level margins of 23.7-24.2%
Q1 delivered 25.1%, raised top end of guidance to 24.3%. Performing ahead.
Q1'26DeliveredSalmon launch by end of Q1
Launched nationally in Q2 as promised, now running through Q4 minimum.
Q1'26ExceededSame-restaurant sales of 3-5% for 2026
Raised guidance to 4.5-6.5% after Q1 delivered 9.7%. Strong outperformance.
Q1'26Pending74-76 net new restaurant openings in 2026
Raised to 75-77, slight upward revision. Q1 delivered 20 units in 16-week quarter, on track.
Q4'25PendingCatering expansion to second market test in 2026
Reaffirmed for later in 2026 following Houston test learnings
Q4'25MissedRestaurant-level profit margin between 24.4-24.8% for 2025
Q4 margin of 21.4% likely pulled full year below guidance range, though full year not disclosed
Q4'25DeliveredSame-restaurant sales guidance of 3-4% for 2025
Achieved 4% same-restaurant sales for full year, at high end of range
Q4'25Exceeded68-70 net new restaurant openings for full year 2025
Delivered 72 net new restaurants, 6% above high end of guidance
Q4'25DeliveredSalmon market test results would inform broader launch decision
Salmon performing 'a little bit better than Chicken Shawarma' leading to late spring 2026 launch
Q4'25ExceededKDS rollout to at least 350 locations by Q3 2025 year-end
Delivered 370 locations live with remaining 69 retrofits scheduled for 2026
Q3'25MissedQ2: 'Restaurant level margins 24.8-25.2%'
Lowered to 24.4-24.8% due to margin pressures
Q3'25MissedQ2: 'Same-restaurant sales guidance 4-6%'
Lowered to 3-4% range due to macro pressures
Q3'25PendingQ2: 'AGM role rollout starting November through 6 months'
On track for November start as planned
Q3'25DeliveredQ2: 'TurboChef ovens in all restaurants by year-end'
Completed rollout to all locations as committed
Q3'25ExceededQ2: 'KDS rollout to 270 locations by end of year'
Upgraded target to 350 locations, currently at 200+ vs 95 in Q2
Q3'25DeliveredQ2: 'Chicken shawarma company-wide in early fall'
Launched in Q3 as promised, performed to market test expectations
Each row is a promise from the prior call, scored against the quarter in "Marked". Kept-promise rate counts resolved promises only; pending is excluded.
Promise-kept rate counts resolved promises only (pending excluded).
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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