| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | July 28, 2026 | 7/12 | 2 high, 3 medium, 1 low flags | 3 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 30, 2026 | 12/12 | 1 medium, 5 low flags | 4 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | February 5, 2026 | 10/12 | 3 medium, 2 low flags | 5 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | Pending | Free cash flow of $2.3B for full year No change to guide despite strong Q2 generation |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Significant ramp in commercial deliveries H2 Reaffirmed but Q2 commercial was 'down due to timing', concerning |
| Q2'26 | Pending | CSE margins around 10% for the year Q2 at 12% but management calling it 'disappointing', full year uncertain |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | CSA resi down high single digits for full year Now guiding up high single digits, 15+ point swing |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | Data center sales of $1.5B for full year Raised to $2B, massive 33% increase to guidance |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | Q2 revenues just below $6B with 2 points organic growth Delivered $6.4B with 3% organic, beat by $400M+ |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Free cash flow approximately $2 billion for 2026 Q1 negative but normal seasonality, second half weighted as planned |
| Q1'26 | Pending | CSA resi down high single digits for 2026 Q1 down 12% vs. high single digit guide, tracking slightly worse but within range |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Sixth consecutive year of double-digit aftermarket growth Delivered sixth year and committed to seventh in 2026 |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Field inventory reduction to healthy levels Field inventories down 35% YoY, management calls levels very healthy |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Fifth consecutive year of double-digit commercial HVAC growth Global CHVAC up 14% for full year 2025 as committed |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Data center sales around $1 billion for 2025 Actually reached $1 billion as promised, built foundation for $1.5B 2026 target |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Rightsize for demand in factories Eliminated 3,000 positions, more aggressive than initially indicated |
| Q4'25 | Pending | HEMS market introduction mid next year (from Q3) Now saying 'market launch later this year' - slight delay |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Continue double-digit growth in commercial HVAC Fifth consecutive year achieved despite Q4 deceleration |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Field destocking substantially behind us by year-end Field inventory down 30% to 2018 levels as targeted |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Fifth consecutive year of double-digit aftermarket growth Aftermarket up double digits, maintained streak |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Double data center business from $500M to $1B in 2025 Achieved $1B target, now guiding $1.5B for 2026 |
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