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Call sheet · Q1'26

Carrier Global (CARR)

Q1'26 earnings call · held April 30, 2026 · compared with the Q4'25 call · management-credibility review
12/12
Disclosure score
1 medium, 5 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story everyone is missing: CSA Light Commercial just became their margin savior with 9% growth and 70% order growth while everyone obsesses over resi. The data center backlog fully covering $1.5B is locked-in revenue, but they won't raise guidance because H2 execution risk is real. The binding constraint isn't demand, it's their own manufacturing and engineering capacity to deliver this massive H2 ramp. Gitlin's most revealing quote: 'If tariffs change, we'll take not all of it off because some was fuel surcharges, but we would change the pricing we put in place.' Translation: they have real pricing power beyond tariffs. My view changes if Q2 data center deliveries disappoint or if the pricing/cost gap extends beyond Q2 as promised.

The 30-second version

  • The sleeper story: CSA Light Commercial quietly became their margin savior
  • Data center backlog fully covers $1.5B target but management signals more coming
  • Tariff pass-through reveals pricing power but creates Q2 margin gap

What changed this quarter

MetricQ4'25Q1'26Change
Total Revenue$4.8B (-9% YoY)$5.3B (-1% YoY)+$500M QoQ, margin pressure easing
Adjusted EPS$0.34 (-44% YoY)$0.57 (-12% YoY)+$0.23 QoQ, still down double digits YoY
CSA Organic Sales-17% YoY-3% YoY+1400bps improvement, resi stabilizing
CSA Operating MarginJust under 9%About 15%+600bps QoQ, absorption improving
CSA Light Commercial-20% YoY+9% YoY+29pp swing, share gains in retail
Global Data Center OrdersNot disclosedUp over 500% YoYExplosive growth, backlog covers $1.5B target
CSE Operating MarginUp YoYDisappointingTemporary promotions hit margins harder than expected
Free Cash Flow$900M in Q4-$15M outflowNormal seasonality but $915M swing
Connected DevicesNot disclosedUp over 25% in quarterAftermarket digitization accelerating
CSAME China RLC-30% in Q4-25%Still brutal but decelerating decline

Accountability tracked

8 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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