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Management credibility scorecard

CarGurus (CARG)

4 quarters tracked (Q3'25 to Q2'26) · latest call August 6, 2026
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100%
Kept of 15 resolved
15
Kept or exceeded
0
Missed
8
Still pending
Share count, 3 yrs/yr · accretor

Score History

QuarterCall dateDisclosureFinancial qualityKeptMissed
Q2'26August 6, 20265/121 high, 3 medium, 4 low flags20Call sheet →
Q1'26May 7, 20267/123 medium, 3 low flags40Call sheet →
Q4'25February 19, 202610/121 medium, 5 low flags40Call sheet →
Q3'25November 7, 20258/123 medium, 3 low flags50Call sheet →
Disclosure: the 6-item rubric, each scored 0-2, out of 12. Financial quality: flagged indicators by severity. Kept and missed count the prior-quarter promises scored on that call.

Promise Ledger · All Quarters

MarkedStatusPromise
Q2'26PendingWe still expect full year non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA margins to compress approximately 1.5 to 2.5 percentage points in 2026 relative to 2025.
Fiscal year not ended; this guide was revised to approximately 50 to 150 basis points of compression this quarter, a positive revision rather than a delivery or miss.
Q2'26PendingWe are reiterating that we expect 2026 revenue to grow in the range of 10% to 13% year-over-year.
Full fiscal year has not ended; management reiterated the same range this quarter.
Q2'26ExceededWe expect second quarter non-GAAP earnings per share to be in the range of $0.57 to $0.64...
Actual Q2 non-GAAP EPS was $0.66, above the top end of the guided range.
Q2'26PendingFor the second quarter, we expect our non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $77.5 million to $85.5 million.
Actual Q2 adjusted EBITDA result is not citable to a confirmed management speaker line in the current transcript dataset.
Q2'26DeliveredWe expect our second quarter revenue to be in the range of $247 million to $252 million, up between 11% and 14% year-over-year, respectively.
Actual Q2 revenue was $251M, +13% YoY, within the guided range and near the top end.
Q1'26Delivered$250 million share repurchase program through year-end 2026
Deployed $175M in Q1, $75M remaining authorization
Q1'26PendingPreserving flexibility for targeted M&A
No M&A activity disclosed, cash position now constrains large deals
Q1'26DeliveredContinue investing internally where we see strongest long-term returns
Increased product, technology and development spend as planned
Q1'26DeliveredFull year EBITDA margins compress approximately 1.5 to 2.5 percentage points
Q1 at 33% margin consistent with compression guidance
Q1'26Delivered2026 revenue to grow in the range of 10% to 13% year-over-year
Reiterated guidance range, Q1 at 15% growth tracking above midpoint
Q1'26PendingExpect monetized dealer products to grow approximately 15x in 2026 and achieve 8-figure revenue levels
PriceVantage at 'several hundred' dealers suggests smaller base than 15x growth implied
Q4'25ExceededFull year Marketplace EBITDA $313M to $321M
Achieved implied $319M at midpoint guidance
Q4'25DeliveredWe guided to Marketplace revenue $902M to $907M full year
Achieved $907M at high end of range
Q4'25PendingTesting different price points for PriceVantage
Still testing, no final pricing disclosed
Q4'25DeliveredWe expect to substantially complete CarOffer wind down by year-end
Completed in Q4 with costs at low end of guided range
Q4'25PendingBy year-end, nearly 30% of Digital Deal enabled dealers' email leads will come through Digital Deal
Not specifically addressed in Q4 call, timeline suggests should be achieved
Q4'25DeliveredWe launched PriceVantage in October as our first specialized software product
Product launched and showing 80% weekly engagement among adopters
Q3'25ExceededCG Discover traffic growth continuation
Traffic nearly tripled QoQ vs 70% month-over-month growth in Q2
Q3'25ExceededNew Car Advantage rollout across markets
Rebranded to New Car Exposure, now in 94 DMAs vs early rollout
Q3'25DeliveredContinue expanding Digital Deal adoption beyond 12,000 dealers
Reached 12,500+ dealers in Q3
Q3'25DeliveredSequentially higher investments in Q3 for sales/marketing, international, product
EBITDA margin compressed 100bp sequentially as promised
Q3'25DeliveredSubstantially complete CarOffer wind-down in second half 2025
On track with transactions ceased in Q3, wind-down by year-end
Q3'25PendingExit the year at low double-digit growth rate (Q2 guidance)
Q4 guide of 12-15% YoY suggests they'll hit this, upgraded to 'modestly ahead'
Each row is a promise from the prior call, scored against the quarter in "Marked". Kept-promise rate counts resolved promises only; pending is excluded.
Promise-kept rate counts resolved promises only (pending excluded).
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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