| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | August 4, 2026 | 8/12 | 2 high, 5 medium, 1 low flags | 2 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 28, 2026 | 9/12 | 2 medium, 4 low flags | 1 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | February 18, 2026 | 9/12 | 3 medium, 6 low flags | 5 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'25 | 2025-10-28 | 10/12 | 2 medium, 6 low flags | 7 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | Pending | We see an opportunity to further strengthen Genius this year Calendar year 2026 is not complete; language shifted this quarter to open-ended 'going forward' with no feature or date specified, a timeline softening rather than a delivered resolution. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Long-term constant-currency growth ambition of at least 8% gross bookings growth, 8% revenue growth, and 15% adjusted EPS growth for future years Multi-year target, not yet due for assessment; no current-quarter resolution evidence available. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Full year 2026 guidance: gross bookings up high single digits to low double digits, revenue up high single digits, adjusted EPS up low to mid teens Year not complete; this quarter management narrowed gross bookings guidance to high single digits only, trimming the top end cited in Q1. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Transformation program target of $500-550M annual run-rate savings for 2026 Full year 2026 is not complete; management raised the target to ~$650M this quarter, which is a revision, not a resolution. |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | Q2 2026 gross bookings, revenue, and adjusted EBITDA guidance of 4% to 6% growth Gross bookings grew 9% (8% cc), revenue grew 8% (7% cc), and adjusted EBITDA grew 9%, all above the high end of guidance. |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | Q2 2026 room night growth guidance of 2% to 4% Actual Q2 room nights grew 5%, beating the high end of guidance by about one percentage point. |
| Q1'26 | Pending | EBITDA margins to expand 50bps for full year Q1 delivered but Q2 guidance suggests pressure ahead |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Further strengthen Genius offering in 2026 Still using same vague language, no concrete enhancements announced yet |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Constant currency growth 100bps ahead of long-term algorithm Still tracking but Middle East impact creates uncertainty |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Marketing leverage for full year 2026 Q1 deleverage of 4bps makes full year target more challenging |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Transformation program to deliver $500-550M run rate savings by end of 2026 On track with $550M annual run rate achieved by end of 2025, targeting in-year delivery |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Room night growth guidance of 5-7% for Q1 Delivered 6% at midpoint despite Middle East headwinds |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Alternative accommodations double-digit growth Only 9% room night growth, fell below double-digit threshold |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Connected Trip transactions continued growth High-20% range growth maintained, though language became less precise |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Continue expanding direct channel mix Direct mix reached mid-60% range, up from low-60% prior year |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Q4 gross bookings increase 11-13% Delivered 16%, 300bps above high-end |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Room night growth between 4-6% in Q4 Delivered 9%, 300bps above high-end guidance |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Transformation Program $150M in-year savings commitment Delivered $250M in-year savings, 67% above promise |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Full year gross bookings and revenue up low double digits Raised full-year guidance: gross bookings 11-12%, revenue ~12%, both at higher end of 'low double digits' range. |
| Q3'25 | Exceeded | U.S. growth to continue gradual improvement High single-digit growth achieved vs. prior 'low single digits' - third consecutive quarter of acceleration. |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Asia to remain fastest-growing region with high single-digit industry growth Low double-digit growth maintained, outpacing industry expectations. |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Connected Trip transactions to show continued strong growth Mid-20% growth achieved, now low double-digit % of transactions. Growth rate decelerated from 30%+ in Q2. |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Drive higher direct mix and mobile app adoption Direct mix stable in mid-60% range with U.S. showing acceleration. Mobile mix steady mid-50% range. |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Continue to expand alternative accommodations offerings and growth Listings grew 10% YoY to 8.6M, room night growth double-digit across all regions. 36% mix (up 100bp). |
| Q3'25 | Exceeded | Transformation program to deliver ~$350M in run rate savings with $150M realized in 2025 Now expecting $500-550M run rate savings with >$225M realized in 2025. Significant beat on both metrics. |
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