| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | July 30, 2026 | 8/12 | 1 high, 3 medium, 2 low flags | 5 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'26 | April 30, 2026 | 11/12 | 1 medium, 5 low flags | 4 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | January 30, 2026 | 7/12 | 2 medium, 4 low flags | 1 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | November 7, 2025 | 10/12 | 1 medium, 5 low flags | 3 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | Exceeded | $50M in headcount reduction savings Already at $75M year-to-date |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Helium to bottom by end of fiscal year Still claiming this but language softened from 'expect' to 'hope' |
| Q3'26 | Exceeded | 8-10% EPS growth for fiscal 2026 Raised to 11-12% growth with new guidance |
| Q3'26 | Delivered | Complete NEOM marketing agreement with Yara Agreement signed and announced |
| Q3'26 | Delivered | Reduce CapEx by $1B in fiscal 2026 On track with $3.5B guidance vs $4.5B+ prior year |
| Q3'26 | Delivered | Reach go/no-go decision on Louisiana by middle of calendar 2026 Delivered early with cancellation announcement, though not the outcome they initially hoped for |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Continue disciplined capital allocation and dividend increases 44th consecutive year of dividend increases announced |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | New assets to contribute more in second half Seeing modest contribution in Q2, expect further ramp |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Helium headwind to bottom by end of fiscal year Still expecting this timeline, maintaining 4% EPS headwind guidance |
| Q2'26 | Pending | NEOM marketing agreement with Yara in first half of 2026 Still on track, negotiations 'progressing in line with expectations' |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Reduce CapEx by approximately $1B in fiscal 2026 Maintaining $4B guidance, confirming $1B reduction on track |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | Full year EPS guidance of $12.85-$13.15 (7-9% growth) Raised to $13.00-$13.25, now 8-10% growth at midpoint |
| Q1'26 | Pending | NEOM ammonia production on stream with full availability in 2027 Confirmed project 90% complete, on track |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Bring new assets on stream in second half of fiscal year Confirmed timing, including Taiwan electronics facility |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Return to staffing levels of 2018 adjusted for new assets Identified 3,600 headcount reductions, $250M annual savings |
| Q1'26 | Pending | EPS guidance $12.85 to $13.15 for fiscal 2026 Reaffirmed guidance range |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Reduce CapEx by approximately $1B in fiscal 2026 Maintained $4B guidance, on track per management |
| Q1'26 | Missed | Provide updates on Louisiana project before end of 2025 Now saying 'next few months' for clarity on costs - pushed timeline |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Return to 2018 headcount levels adjusted for new assets Making progress with 3,600 cuts, targeting 18,500 base plus new assets |
| Q4'25 | Pending | NEOM project start-up in 2027 Still on track, now 90% complete with ammonia production 2027 |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Capital expenditures approximately $5 billion for the year Maintained guidance throughout the year |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Full year EPS guidance $11.90-$12.10 Came in at $12.03, above midpoint as committed |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Global cost reduction plan generating $185-195M savings Now targeting $250M in savings, significantly higher than promised |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Working to get Louisiana partnerships done by end of current year Still on track but timeline now firmed to 'prior to end of 2025' |
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