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Management credibility scorecard

American International Group (AIG)

3 quarters tracked (Q4'25 to Q2'26) · latest call August 7, 2026
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100%
Kept of 14 resolved
14
Kept or exceeded
0
Missed
2
Still pending
Share count, 3 yrs/yr · accretor

Score History

QuarterCall dateDisclosureFinancial qualityKeptMissed
Q2'26August 7, 20268/122 high, 4 medium, 2 low flags20Call sheet →
Q1'26May 1, 202611/122 medium, 5 low flags60Call sheet →
Q4'25February 11, 202611/121 medium, 5 low flags60Call sheet →
Disclosure: the 6-item rubric, each scored 0-2, out of 12. Financial quality: flagged indicators by severity. Kept and missed count the prior-quarter promises scored on that call.

Promise Ledger · All Quarters

MarkedStatusPromise
Q2'26DeliveredWe expect second quarter alternative returns to remain below our expectations
Private equity posted an $8 million loss in Q2 (down from $48M income a year ago), consistent with the flagged weakness.
Q2'26DeliveredWe anticipate fully exiting our position by selling down our remaining stake in 2026, subject to market conditions
AIG sold the remaining ~25 million Corebridge shares for $710 million in May 2026, completing the exit.
Q2'26PendingFull year 2026 low to mid-teens net premiums written growth in General Insurance
FY2026 has not ended. Management did not restate the range this quarter when asked directly, offering only 'we're pretty happy with the 13%... a little early in the year', a soft, unquantified response rather than a reaffirmation.
Q2'26PendingImproving General Insurance's expense ratio to less than 30% by 2027
FY2027 period has not ended; trailing 12-month ratio is 30.7%, down from 31.1% at YE2025, consistent with the glide path reaffirmed this quarter.
Q1'26DeliveredStrong start to 2026 from multiple growth drivers
18% NPW growth and 80% EPS growth - exceptionally strong start
Q1'26DeliveredContinue reducing Corebridge ownership throughout 2026
Down to 5.6% from 10.1% at year-end - progressing as promised
Q1'26ExceededDividend increase of 10% in 2026
Delivered 11% increase to $0.50 per share - above commitment
Q1'26DeliveredDeploy underwriting by AIG Assist across additional lines of business
Expanded to 8 lines of business including Lexington - on track
Q1'26DeliveredGood progress with Everest portfolio conversion
75% retention rate in January representing $180M - solid performance
Q1'26ExceededEnhanced terms and favorable pricing on January 1 reinsurance renewals
Delivered 15%+ rate decreases with better attachment points - better than expected
Q4'25DeliveredGrow dividend per share by over 10% in 2025
Increased quarterly dividend by 12.5%, third consecutive year 10%+
Q4'25DeliveredContinue share repurchases subject to market conditions
Returned $6.8B total capital, largest year in recent history
Q4'25DeliveredMake progress toward expense ratio below 30%
Hit 31.1% vs 32.0% prior year, on track for 2027 target
Q4'25ExceededLook for compelling opportunities to deploy capital
Closed three major strategic deals: Convex, Onex, Everest
Q4'25DeliveredContinue to see strong results from GenAI rollout
Now processing 370k submissions vs initial targets
Q4'25ExceededDeploy underwriting by AIG Assist across the rest of North America, U.K. and EMEA commercial lines (originally scheduled)
Moved timeline up by 6 months - rare to see acceleration
Each row is a promise from the prior call, scored against the quarter in "Marked". Kept-promise rate counts resolved promises only; pending is excluded.
Promise-kept rate counts resolved promises only (pending excluded).
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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