American International Group (AIG) Q2 FY2026 Earnings Call

Bottom line

The sleeper story here isn't the 88.1% combined ratio, it's that AIG just stopped showing its work on the two things that matter most for the next four quarters: how much of growth is real and organic, and whether casualty reserves are as clean as the headline favorable development suggests. NPW growth decelerated from 18% to 9% and ROE fell from 12.2% to 11.1%, and when pressed on the Everest/Convex contribution, Eric Andersen admitted 'we haven't really broken out the pieces', a real regression from Q1's crisp $1.6B/+42% disclosure. The binding constraint is the property cycle: Lexington retention is down 9 points and it's cutting North America growth by over 3 points, forcing AIG deeper into casualty just as they quietly strengthened AY2016/2023 excess casualty reserves by $74M inside an otherwise-favorable development print. My view changes if next quarter they restate the FY2026 growth range in hard numbers and give a segment-level Everest/Convex breakdown; if that opacity persists into Q3, this becomes a real transparency problem, not just an awkward quarter.

The 30-second version

Organic growth is quietly disappearing into the M&A fog, and management just admitted they can't tell you where.
Headline 'strong quarter, beat and raise' story is really a growth and ROE deceleration dressed up in YoY framing.
Two Investor Day numbers went silent this quarter, and the reserve 'favorable development' headline hides a casualty top-up.

What changed this quarter

Metric	Q1'26	Q2'26	Change
Adjusted EPS (diluted)	$2.11, +80% YoY	$2.00, +10% YoY	YoY growth rate collapsed 70pp
Core operating ROE	12.2%	11.1% (11.6% H1)	-110bps sequential
Underwriting income	$774M, more than tripled YoY	$686M, +10% YoY	Sequential decline despite positive YoY framing
GI NPW growth (constant $)	+18% YoY	+9% YoY (+11% ex-NA property)	Growth rate halved
AY combined ratio as adjusted	86.6%	88.1%	+150bps sequential deterioration
Global Personal calendar-year combined ratio	89.4%	92.9%	+350bps sequential despite YoY improvement claim
Capital returned to shareholders	$760M ($519M buybacks/$241M div)	$904M ($641M buybacks/$263M div)	+19% QoQ increase
GI net investment income	$864M, +17% YoY	$871M, flat YoY	Growth stalled
Alternative investment income (PE)	PE yield 1.6%, down from prior year	PE posted an $8M loss vs $48M income prior year	Flipped negative
Corebridge ownership	~5.6% remaining	0%, final ~25M shares sold for $710M	Fully exited, 5-year separation complete

Accountability tracked

2 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged4 prior promises scored

Inside the full report

The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.

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American International Group (AIG)

The 30-second version

What changed this quarter

Accountability tracked

Follow what management promises next