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Management credibility scorecard

Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM)

4 quarters tracked (Q3'25 to Q2'26) · latest call August 4, 2026
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80%
Kept of 15 resolved
12
Kept or exceeded
3
Missed
4
Still pending
Share count, 3 yrs/yr · reducer

Score History

QuarterCall dateDisclosureFinancial qualityKeptMissed
Q2'26August 4, 2026-No flags00Call sheet →
Q1'26May 5, 202610/122 medium, 4 low flags50Call sheet →
Q4'25February 3, 20269/125 medium, 3 low flags51Call sheet →
Q3'25November 4, 20259/121 high, 3 medium, 1 low flags22Call sheet →
Disclosure: the 6-item rubric, each scored 0-2, out of 12. Financial quality: flagged indicators by severity. Kept and missed count the prior-quarter promises scored on that call.

Promise Ledger · All Quarters

MarkedStatusPromise
Q1'26PendingTarget cost savings of $500M-$750M over 3-5 years
Program launched in 2025, on track but no specific progress update
Q1'26DeliveredMaintain disciplined capital allocation
CapEx guidance maintained at $1.3B-$1.5B, dividend increased
Q1'26DeliveredNutrition expected to show continued improvement
Operating profit up 42% YoY with strong flavors performance
Q1'26DeliveredContinue recovery of Decatur East plant operations
Plant back to full volume but customer recovery taking longer than expected
Q1'26Exceeded45Z could be $100 million impact
Now expecting $150 million for full year 2026
Q1'26PendingExpect crush margins in 2026 to be similar to 2025
Q1 impacted by mark-to-market but underlying margins appear improving
Q1'26DeliveredRVO policy clarity would create increasingly constructive operating environment
RVO published March 27, crush rates immediately jumped 10% YoY
Q4'25ExceededAlltech JV to commence operations in 2026
Joint venture commenced operations recently, ahead of schedule
Q4'25DeliveredDecatur East plant returning to planned utilization rates
Plant is back online and consistently producing white flake
Q4'25DeliveredYear-end leverage ratio of approximately 2x
Ended at 1.9x, slightly better than target
Q4'25DeliveredFull year 2025 CapEx in range of $1.3-1.5 billion
Invested $1.2B, came in below range showing capital discipline
Q4'25DeliveredTargeted $200-300M in cost savings in 2025
Achieved approximately $200M, hitting low end of range
Q4'25MissedFull year 2025 adjusted EPS approximately $4 per share
Delivered $3.43, significantly below guidance due to crush margin deterioration
Q3'25PendingCapEx spend in range of $1.3-1.5 billion for 2025
YTD at $892M, tracking to range
Q3'25DeliveredStrong crops in North America and solid export season in Q4
Achieved best September export volume since 2016
Q3'25PendingRemain on track for $200-300 million in cost savings in 2025
Management reaffirmed this target despite other guidance cuts
Q3'25DeliveredContinued improvement in Nutrition through Decatur East returning to full production
Plant is back online and consistently producing white flake
Q3'25MissedGlobal soybean crush margins in range of $60-70 per metric ton for Q4
Now expecting flat to slightly up from Q3, well below $60-70 range
Q3'25MissedAdjusted earnings per share to be approximately $4 per share for full year 2025
Cut to $3.25-$3.50 range, a 13-19% reduction from prior guidance
Each row is a promise from the prior call, scored against the quarter in "Marked". Kept-promise rate counts resolved promises only; pending is excluded.
Promise-kept rate counts resolved promises only (pending excluded).
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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