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Call sheet · Q1'26

Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM)

Q1'26 earnings call · held May 5, 2026 · compared with the Q4'25 call · management-credibility review
10/12
Disclosure score
2 medium, 4 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is ethanol carrying the quarter while everyone obsesses over soybean crush margins - 45Z tax credits delivering $150M vs $100M guide and ethanol margins up $0.18 per gallon YoY. The obvious headline about guidance raises and RVO clarity is real, but the binding constraint is manufacturing cost inflation that Luciano admits is 'higher than it used to be' but won't quantify. Most revealing quote: 'We haven't recovered our full position yet, and that will probably take a while' on Decatur East customers - they're being more honest about recovery timelines. The $275M Q1 mark-to-market hit reversing in Q2 sets up a strong second quarter, but my view changes if they can't quantify the manufacturing cost headwinds or if ethanol policy benefits prove temporary.

The 30-second version

  • Ethanol's the real winner here - 45Z delivering $150M vs $100M guide while everyone obsesses over soybeans
  • Mark-to-market timing creates $275M Q1 headwind but signals strong Q2 - guidance raise reflects this reversal
  • Manufacturing cost inflation still bleeding margins despite volume records - the sleeper risk no one's pricing in

What changed this quarter

MetricQ4'25Q1'26Change
Adjusted EPS$0.87 (+25% YoY)$0.71 (-18% YoY)Down but guidance raised to $4.15-$4.70 vs $3.60-$4.25
Total Segment Operating Profit$821M (-23% YoY)$764M (-7% YoY)Sequential deterioration but less severe YoY decline
AS&O Operating Profit$444M (-31% YoY)$273M (-34% YoY)Worsening 300bps but includes $275M mark-to-market drag
Carb Solutions Operating Profit$299M (-6% YoY)$356M (+48% YoY)Massive acceleration driven by ethanol strength
Nutrition Operating Profit$178M (-11% YoY)$135M (+42% YoY)Sharp reversal from decline to strong growth
Ethanol EBITDA per GallonUp 33% YoY in Q4Up $0.18 YoYSustained strength across both wet and dry milling
Global Crush VolumesUp 4% YoYUp 2% YoY with record productionSlight deceleration but hitting operational records
Cash Flow from Operations (before working capital)$2.7B for full year$442M (flat vs prior year Q1)Stable quarterly performance
Net Leverage Ratio1.9x at year-end2.2xSeasonal increase but tracking to ~2x year-end
Human Nutrition RevenueUp 5% YoY in Q4Up 3% YoYModest deceleration but profit margins accelerating

Accountability tracked

8 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged7 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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