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Call sheet · Q4'26

Walmart (WMT)

Q4'26 earnings call · held February 19, 2026 · compared with the Q3'26 call · management-credibility review
11/12
Disclosure score
1 medium, 5 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is Sparky's 35% AOV premium proving AI commerce monetization works at scale - half of app users engaging with measurable basket expansion while competitors still debate AI ROI. Yes, revenue growth moderated to 4.9%, but the binding constraint is actually inventory conservatism, not demand weakness (Furner admitted they 'probably would have bought even more aggressive'). The most revealing moment: advertising plus membership now generating one-third of operating income, transforming Walmart from a low-margin retailer into a diversified profit machine that can fund price wars while growing margins. My view changes if Sparky adoption stalls in Q1 or if they don't provide international growth transparency next quarter.

The 30-second version

  • Sparky's 35% AOV premium quietly validates AI commerce monetization
  • Alt-revenue dominance hits inflection: now one-third of operating income
  • Inventory discipline masks underlying demand strength in GM categories

What changed this quarter

MetricQ3'26Q4'26Change
Total Revenue (Constant Currency)+5.9% YoY Q3+4.9% YoY Q4-100 bps deceleration
E-commerce Growth+27% YoY Q3+24% YoY Q4-300 bps slowdown but still strong
Adjusted Operating Income Growth+8.0% YoY Q3+10.5% YoY Q4+250 bps acceleration
Walmart US Comp Sales+4.5% Q3+4.6% Q4+10 bps stability
Walmart US E-commerce+28% YoY Q3+27% YoY Q4-100 bps but 7th consecutive quarter above 20%
International Revenue Growth+11.4% YoY Q3Not disclosed Q4Segment disclosure disappeared
Walmart Connect Advertising+33% ex-Vizio Q3+41% Q4+800 bps acceleration
Global Advertising Revenue+53% including Vizio Q3+37% Q4-1600 bps but lapped Vizio acquisition
Membership Income Growth+17% Q3+15% Q4-200 bps deceleration
Walmart Plus IncomeDouble digits Q3Strong, up double digits Q4Maintained momentum

Accountability tracked

8 new promises made5 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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