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Call sheet · Q2'26

Visa (V)

Q2'26 earnings call · held April 28, 2026 · compared with the Q1'26 call · management-credibility review
10/12
Disclosure score
3 medium, 3 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is stablecoin infrastructure - $7B settlement run rate growing 50% quarterly while everyone chases AI narratives. This is real revenue with validator economics, not future promises. The obvious headline is 17% revenue growth, but the binding constraint is cross-border yield compression from Visa Direct mix shift that they're masking with volatility language. Most revealing quote: 'We have established Visa's role as a key interoperability layer' - past tense confidence on blockchain positioning. My view changes if cross-border yields stabilize or they provide Visa Direct economics transparency in Q3.

The 30-second version

  • Stablecoin settlement is the hidden growth engine - $7B annualized run rate, up 50% in one quarter
  • VAS hit 30% of revenue growing 27% - but marketing services timing games mask underlying trajectory
  • They stopped breaking out cross-border eCommerce vs travel yields - classic denominator game when mix is hurting

What changed this quarter

MetricQ1'26Q2'26Change
Net Revenue$10.9B (+15% YoY)$11.2B (+17% YoY)+280 bps acceleration to strongest growth since 2022
VAS Revenue$3.2B (+28% YoY constant dollar)$3.3B (+27% YoY constant dollar)Modest deceleration but now 30% of total revenue
CMS Revenue+20% YoY constant dollar+24% YoY constant dollar+400 bps acceleration driven by 'adjustments and timing'
EPS$3.17 (+15% YoY)$3.31 (+20% YoY)+500 bps acceleration, beat by largest margin in 3-4 years
Global Payments Volume8% YoY constant dollar9% YoY constant dollar+100 bps improvement, first acceleration in quarters
Cross-Border Volume11% YoY constant dollar ex-intra Europe11% YoY constant dollar ex-intra EuropeFlat despite Middle East conflict impact
ITR Revenue Growth6% YoY10% YoY+400 bps improvement but still lagging volume growth
Client Incentives12% YoY growth, below expectations14% YoY growth, below expectationsContinued deal timing benefits masking underlying rate
Stablecoin Settlement Volume$4.6B annualized run rate$7B annualized run rate+52% quarter-over-quarter, added 5 new blockchains
Stablecoin Card Payment VolumeStrong growth rate disclosedUp nearly 200% YoYFirst specific growth rate disclosed - massive acceleration

Accountability tracked

7 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged7 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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