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Call sheet · Q4'25

S&P Global (SPGI)

Q4'25 earnings call · held February 10, 2026 · compared with the Q3'25 call · management-credibility review
7/12
Disclosure score
1 high, 3 medium, 2 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is Market Intelligence volume-driven products stalling, which is a leading indicator of capital markets weakness that will hit Ratings in 1-2 quarters. The obvious headline is strong Q4 results, but management quietly stopped reporting the momentum metrics they were touting just last quarter. The binding constraint is their own conservative assumptions about AI infrastructure debt funding, despite $650 billion in announced hyperscaler CapEx. Martina Cheung's most revealing comment: 'We take one haircut on our assumption for how much we think will materialize and then another haircut on how much we think would be debt funded.' My view changes if volume-driven products in MI return to growth in Q1 or if they start quantifying AI revenue contribution.

The 30-second version

  • Market Intelligence volume-driven products quietly stalled in Q4, signaling capital markets slowdown ahead
  • Ratings guide implies they don't believe their own AI infrastructure thesis
  • Bank loan volumes 'continue to be soft' with January already showing weakness

What changed this quarter

MetricQ3'25Q4'25Change
Revenue$4.0B (+8% YoY)$4.4B (+9% YoY)+100 bps acceleration
Adjusted EPS$4.33 (+15% YoY)$4.94 (+14% YoY)-100 bps deceleration
Adjusted Operating Margin51.7% (+340 bps YoY)47.3% (+60 bps YoY)-280 bps margin expansion decline
Market Intelligence Revenue$1.1B (+8% organic)$1.2B (+5% organic)-300 bps organic deceleration
Market Intelligence Operating Margin35.6% (+360 bps YoY)32.2% (YoY not disclosed)-340 bps sequential decline
Ratings Revenue$1.1B (+12% YoY)$1.3B (+12% YoY)Flat growth rate
Ratings Operating Margin67.1% (+540 bps YoY)61.8% (+210 bps YoY)-330 bps margin expansion decline
Billed Issuance Growth13% YoY28% YoY+1500 bps acceleration
Energy Revenue$744M (+6% YoY)$756M (+6% YoY)Flat growth rate
Indices Revenue$481M (+11% YoY)$550M (+14% YoY)+300 bps acceleration

Accountability tracked

8 new promises made5 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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This is a free preview. The full write-up and promise ledger are published to subscribers on Substack.
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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