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Call sheet · Q2'26

S&P Global (SPGI)

Q2'26 earnings call · held July 28, 2026 · compared with the Q1'26 call · management-credibility review
4/12
Disclosure score
2 high, 5 medium, 1 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is that API usage is exploding (25X in six months) but management admitted they're just 'testing' monetization, a stunning regression from last quarter's confidence. Yes, they beat on margins and ratings is crushing it, but the binding constraint is their inability to price AI value capture while customers build in-house alternatives. Most revealing quote: 'Customers are looking for ways to minimize or manage token expenses, including building solutions in-house.' My view changes if they show AI revenue exceeding 5% of total by year-end with defined pricing models.

The 30-second version

  • AI customers growing 60% faster in MI, 3X in Energy, but management won't give a denominator
  • Hyperscaler issuance tracking 25-50% above initial guidance, but management sandbagged H2
  • Market Intelligence reorganization signals subscale product divestitures coming

What changed this quarter

MetricQ1'26Q2'26Change
Total Revenue$3.52B (+10% YoY)$3.91B (+11% YoY)+100 bps acceleration
Adjusted EPS$4.01 (+14% YoY)$4.54 (+23% YoY)+900 bps acceleration
Operating Margin51.8%54.3%+250 bps sequential expansion
Ratings Revenue$1.1B (+13% YoY)$1.3B (+17% YoY)+400 bps acceleration
Indices Revenue$471M (+17% YoY)$512M (+21% YoY)+400 bps acceleration
Energy Revenue$331M (+7% YoY)$340M (+3% YoY)-400 bps deceleration
MI Revenue$1.34B (+8% YoY)$1.42B (+6% YoY)-200 bps deceleration
MI Subscription Growth6% YoY6% YoYFlat despite AI narrative
Hyperscaler IssuanceNot disclosed$169B H1 (vs $200B full year initial guide)Tracking 70% ahead of plan
AI API Call Volume5X QoQ growth5X QoQ growth again25X vs six months ago

Accountability tracked

7 new promises made5 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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This is a free preview. The full write-up and promise ledger are published to subscribers on Substack.
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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