SiTime (SITM)

The street will celebrate 61% growth, but the cash flow tells the real story: CFFO barely exceeded net income while inventory bloated and DSOs stretched, classic signs of channel stuffing or demand disappointment. Management's regression from specific targets ('H2 2025' for 60% margins, 'well in excess of 30%' for CED) to vague promises ('over time', 'continue to lead') suggests they've lost visibility just as the cycle peaks. The binding constraint is customer digestion: $76.7M of inventory against $68M quarterly revenue while guiding down 20% sequentially means someone is sitting on a lot of chips. 'We just see a pretty good demand coming from all sectors' said Vashist, which is exactly what you say when demand is actually weakening. My view changes if Q1 cash flow exceeds net income or if they provide 2025 CED growth targets on the next call.