Starbucks (SBUX)

The sleeper story isn't the obvious comp improvement - it's that Green Apron Service is actually driving measurable transaction growth faster than expected, with September marking the first positive comp month in 7 quarters. While everyone will focus on the 107 store closures, the real tell is Niccol admitting many locations 'fell under both categories' of poor customer experience AND unprofitability, suggesting deeper portfolio rot than previously disclosed. The binding constraint remains rebuilding the transaction base while absorbing $500M in labor investments, but September's transaction-driven positive comps suggest the operational foundation is working. Niccol's confidence feels earned rather than manufactured: 'We set a plan, we're working the plan, and the plan is working.' My view changes if Q1 2026 comps don't build sequentially or if the China partnership drags beyond mid-2026.