Earnings Call Intelligence Subscribe
Home › Call Sheets › NKE › Q4'26
Call sheet · Q4'26

NIKE (NKE)

Q4'26 earnings call · held June 30, 2026 · compared with the Q3'26 call · management-credibility review
6/12
Disclosure score
3 high, 5 medium flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is that April's demand collapse forced Nike to slash forward orders mid-quarter, explaining why they're now guiding revenues down 'low to mid single digits' versus just 'low single digits' previously. The market sees a tariff windfall making this a beat, but strip that out and EPS crashed 43% to $0.20, with sportswear in freefall. The binding constraint is that 50% of revenue (sportswear/streetwear) is declining double digits with no clear recovery path, while management deflects to running's $1B growth story. Elliott admitted 'our consumer is under pressure' but buried it in Matthew's remarks. My view changes if sportswear comps turn positive in Q2, but their vague 'dozen new styles' plan suggests they have no real fix.

The 30-second version

  • The $986M tariff refund is masking a brutal underlying margin story
  • Sell-through collapsed mid-quarter, forcing inventory writedowns and order book cuts
  • The 'sport offense' narrative is cover for a collapsing sportswear business

What changed this quarter

MetricQ3'26Q4'26Change
Revenue (Reported)Flat YoY-1% YoY100 bps deceleration
Revenue (Currency Neutral)-3% YoY-4% YoY100 bps deterioration
Gross Margin (Reported)40.2%49.2%+900 bps but artificial from tariff refund
Gross Margin (Ex-Tariff Benefit)40.2%40.2%FLAT despite all recovery actions
EPS (Reported)$0.35$0.72+106% but inflated
EPS (Ex-Tariff Benefit)$0.35$0.20-43% collapse in underlying earnings
Nike Direct-7% YoY-9% YoY200 bps worse
Nike Digital-9% YoY-12% YoY300 bps acceleration in decline
Wholesale+1% YoY+1% YoYStalled at minimal growth
North America Revenue+3% YoY+3% YoYNo acceleration despite 'leading comeback'

Accountability tracked

6 new promises made5 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
Read the full NKE Q4'26 report Subscribe
About Research ↗Call SheetsCredibility IndexMissed PromisesScreens13F BooksData & InstitutionalPrivacyTermsSubscribe
This is a free preview. The full write-up and promise ledger are published to subscribers on Substack.
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

Follow what management promises next

Get free previews of our earnings-call research: the key changes, management scores, and questions worth investigating. Subscribe for full call sheets and deeper analysis.

Subscriptions are managed by Substack. If the form does not load, subscribe directly. Or follow the RSS feed.