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Call sheet · Q3'26

NIKE (NKE)

Q3'26 earnings call · held March 31, 2026 · compared with the Q2'26 call · management-credibility review
10/12
Disclosure score
4 medium, 3 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is NIKE deliberately destroying $5B in revenue to reset brand health, something only a company with fortress-like brand equity can pull off. Everyone will focus on the China guidance going to -20%, but the real signal is North America's underlying margin expansion of 290bps when you strip out tariffs. The binding constraint isn't demand, it's their willingness to sacrifice short-term revenue for long-term brand health, which is why they're taking unplanned inventory write-offs in China while competitors chase volume. Elliott's Camp Nou analogy was telling: 'We are taking deliberate actions that create pressure in the near term... rebuilding not for the next match, but for the next era.' My view changes if they start compromising on brand positioning to hit quarterly numbers or if the China reset extends beyond fiscal 2027.

The 30-second version

  • The sleeper story: NIKE is deliberately nuking $5B in revenue to reset brand health
  • Running offense proves the formula works, but tariffs are masking the margin recovery
  • China guidance just got nuclear: down 20% in Q4 as they accelerate marketplace cleanup

What changed this quarter

MetricQ2'26Q3'26Change
Revenue$13.4B (+1% YoY)$12.8B (-3% currency neutral)Decelerated 400bps despite sport offense gains
Gross Margin40.6% (-300bps YoY)40.2% (-130bps YoY)+170bps sequential improvement
EPS$0.53$0.35-34% decline on severance charges
NIKE Direct RevenueDown 9%Down 7%+200bps sequential improvement
Wholesale Revenue+8%+1%Decelerated 700bps as liquidation benefits lap
North America Revenue+9%+3%Still positive but moderating
Greater China Revenue-16%-10%+600bps improvement but Q4 guidance is -20%
EMEA Revenue-1%-7%Accelerated decline by 600bps
Running BusinessUp over 20%Up over 20%Sustained double-digit growth for 2nd quarter
Inventory-3% YoY-1% YoYLess inventory reduction than prior quarter

Accountability tracked

8 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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