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Call sheet · Q2'26

Nasdaq (NDAQ)

Q2'26 earnings call · held July 23, 2026 · compared with the Q1'26 call · management-credibility review
5/12
Disclosure score
3 high, 4 medium, 1 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is Verafin's implementation crisis: 11 enterprise deals signed but taking 12+ months to recognize ARR, creating a massive deferred revenue bubble that explains why ARR isn't accelerating despite 'record' bookings. Yes, SpaceX made this a headline quarter, but strip out one deal and the core business shows concerning deceleration. The binding constraint is implementation capacity, not demand, which means throwing sales resources at growth won't help. Friedman's tell: 'We don't recognize ARR in the clients until they're fully implemented.' My view changes if they provide specific ARR recognition timelines for the enterprise backlog or show ARR acceleration by Q4.

The 30-second version

  • The real story: Verafin enterprise implementations are 12 months behind schedule, masking what should be 25%+ growth
  • SpaceX IPO saved the quarter but the core IPO pipeline is actually narrowing to AI infrastructure plays
  • Perpetuals discussion went from zero to three mentions, signaling defensive positioning around a threat they claim doesn't exist

What changed this quarter

MetricQ1'26Q2'26Change
Net Revenue$1.4B (13% YoY)$1.5B (15% YoY)+200 bps acceleration
Solutions Revenue$1.1B (14% YoY)$1.2B (17% YoY)+300 bps acceleration
Diluted EPS$0.96 (21% YoY)$1.07 (25% YoY)+400 bps growth acceleration
Operating Margin57%57%Flat sequentially
ARR Growth12% YoY12% YoYNo acceleration despite record bookings
Verafin Revenue Growth21%22%+100 bps but below 25% medium-term target
Index ETP AUM$836B end Q1$1T+ end Q2Historic $1T milestone
Index Net Inflows$6B quarterly$51B quarterly750% surge, record quarter
FinTech ARR Growth16%16%Stuck at same rate despite 'record' quarter
New FinTech Clients64 in Q158 in Q29% decline in new logos

Accountability tracked

7 new promises made5 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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