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Call sheet · Q2'26

Martin Marietta Materials (MLM)

Q2'26 earnings call · held July 30, 2026 · compared with the Q1'26 call · management-credibility review
4/12
Disclosure score
2 high, 3 medium, 1 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is that lime is proving to be the perfect inflation hedge, with Woodville showing 7% gross profit growth despite energy headwinds and only 7% volume decline in 2008 vs aggregates down 37%, which explains why they're betting the company on LNA. The record revenue headline masks that organic volume growth collapsed from 7.2% to 2.3% quarter-over-quarter while costs accelerated, forcing them to bet on historically unreliable mid-year pricing. The binding constraint is energy costs eating margins faster than pricing can offset, with diesel headwinds now $50M vs $36M guided. Most revealing quote: 'History tells us typically we'd realize about 25% of it during the course of the year,' a massive walk-back from Q1's confidence on pricing. My view changes if they actually achieve >40% mid-year pricing realization or diesel drops below $3.50/gallon.

The 30-second version

  • The sleeper: Lime is proving to be the perfect inflation hedge with 4-5% pricing power through cycles
  • Obvious headline of record revenue masks a serious energy cost problem
  • The metric that vanished: Organic volume growth collapsed from 7.2% to 2.3% QoQ

What changed this quarter

MetricQ1'26Q2'26Change
Revenue$1.4B (+17% YoY)$1.7B (+16% YoY)Sequential acceleration but YoY decel
Adjusted EBITDA$1.0B first half$2.43B midpoint guide unchangedNo raise despite acquisitions
Organic Aggregates Volume7.2% growth2.3% growth490 bps deceleration
Mix-Adjusted ASP~4% expected3.7% actualBelow expectations
Aggregates Gross Profit$288M (-3% YoY)$418M reported, $470M adjustedImproved but full of adjustments
Specialties Revenue$143M (+63% YoY)$152M (new record)Continued strength
Specialties Gross Profit$45M (+17% YoY)$50MMargin resilience despite energy
Organic COGS per ton2.7% growth3.6% growth90 bps acceleration
Diesel Cost Headwind$36M guided for aggregates$50M company-wide now expected39% increase in headwind
Infrastructure Shipments+23% in Q1Still strong but no number givenOpacity increasing

Accountability tracked

6 new promises made5 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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This is a free preview. The full write-up and promise ledger are published to subscribers on Substack.
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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