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Call sheet · Q4'25

IonQ (IONQ)

Q4'25 earnings call · held February 26, 2026 · compared with the Q3'25 call · management-credibility review
6/12
Disclosure score
4 medium, 2 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story everyone's missing is that IonQ quietly became the quantum industry's merchant supplier, selling components to 'more than a dozen' competitors and government programs. This B2B infrastructure play could be bigger than their computer business but got buried in quantum computing headlines. The obvious revenue beat looks impressive until you realize they stopped disclosing margins and stock comp exactly when scale should enable transparency. The binding constraint isn't technology - it's the massive regulatory overhang from the SkyWater deal, where management gave zero timeline visibility for a $3B+ acquisition that could reshape the entire industry. As CFO Inder Singh put it: 'It's a regulatory process' - which is code for 'we have no idea and can't control it.' My view changes if they either get SkyWater approval within 6 months or start disclosing gross margins above 20%.

The 30-second version

  • The sleeper story: IonQ quietly became a merchant supplier to the entire quantum industry
  • Beat and raise looks impressive until you realize they stopped disclosing gross margins entirely
  • SkyWater acquisition creates massive regulatory overhang with zero timeline visibility

What changed this quarter

MetricQ3'25Q4'25Change
Revenue$39.9M Q3 (+222% YoY)$61.9M Q4 (+429% YoY)Q/Q acceleration to +55% above own guidance
Full Year Revenue$37.5M FY2024$130M FY2025 (+202% YoY)First quantum company past $100M
Adjusted EBITDA Q4-$48.9M Q3-$67.4M Q4Loss widened 38% despite revenue surge
Full Year Adj EBITDAGuided -$206M to -$216M-$186.8M actualBeat own EBITDA guidance by $19-30M
R&D Spending Q4$66.3M Q3$96.1M Q445% quarter-over-quarter surge
Full Year R&D$137M FY2024$305.7M FY2025123% increase, now 2.4x of revenue
Cash Balance$1.5B Q3$3.3B Q4Added $1.8B from equity raise
Remaining Performance Obligations$77M end-2024$370M end-2025Nearly 5x backlog growth
Stock-Based Compensation$72.9M Q3Not disclosed Q4Stopped breaking out SBC in Q4
International Revenue Mix~30% Q3>30% FY2025First time above 30% annually

Accountability tracked

8 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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