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Call sheet · Q4'25

Robinhood Markets (HOOD)

Q4'25 earnings call · held February 10, 2026 · compared with the Q3'25 call · management-credibility review
10/12
Disclosure score
3 medium, 3 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is banking's 50%+ direct deposit attachment rate - that's primary account behavior happening in months, not the years it typically takes traditional banks. While everyone focuses on prediction markets hype, the real earnings multiplier is converting trading customers into full financial relationships. The binding constraint isn't customer demand but regulatory speed - they're ready to scale banking and international expansion but waiting on approvals. Vlad's most telling quote: 'Over 50% of our funded customers using banking enrolled in direct deposit' - that's stickiness that compounds. My view changes if banking attachment rates plateau below 60% or if AI monetization remains unquantified through Q2 2026.

The 30-second version

  • Banking attachment rate signals the next earnings multiplier
  • AI revenue impact remains completely opaque despite $100M+ investment claims
  • Prediction markets economics shifting to vertical integration without disclosure

What changed this quarter

MetricQ3'25Q4'25Change
Revenue$1.3B (up 100% YoY)$1.3B (up 27% YoY)Growth rate deceleration of 73 percentage points
Adjusted EBITDANot disclosed$2.5B (up 76% YoY)Record high with 56% margin
Adjusted EPSNot disclosed$2.05Record EPS
Net Deposits$20B$16B20% sequential decline but 8th straight quarter over $10B
Gold Subscribers3.9M (up 75% YoY)4.2M (up 58% YoY)Growth rate deceleration of 17 percentage points
Prediction Markets Contracts2.3B in Q312B contracts in 2025Massive scale acceleration
Total Platform AssetsOver $300B$324B (up 70% YoY)Approaching one-third of $1 trillion
International CustomersNearly 700K750K7% sequential growth
Gold Card CustomersOver 500K600K20% sequential growth, 5x YoY
Margin BalancesUp 100% YoYAll-time highsContinued acceleration

Accountability tracked

8 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
Read the full HOOD Q4'25 report Subscribe
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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