Galaxy Digital (GLXY)

The sleeper story is that Galaxy's headline earnings inflection this quarter is almost entirely a mark-to-market story: the Treasury/Corporate segment swung $461 million, from a $42 million loss to a $419 million gain, on unrealized appreciation in digital assets and private investments, while the two actual operating businesses combined for just $60 million of adjusted EBITDA. The obvious headline, Helios ramping to $80 million/quarter of leasing revenue, is real, but the binding constraint is that Helios 2 still has no tenant: management admitted it walked away from a signable deal over the summer and conceded 'we could have signed a deal had we wanted to', while Caspian's baseload classification bid was formally denied by ERCOT. The most revealing line of the call might be the one management didn't say out loud: GAAP net income and EPS, explicitly disclosed last quarter as an $0.09 loss per share, were simply never stated this quarter. My view changes if Galaxy signs a named, investment-grade Helios 2 tenant with disclosed megawatts and lease economics in the next one to two quarters, or if the 10-Q shows the $25 million opex restatement and net income/EPS figures reconciled cleanly against prior disclosures.