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Call sheet · Q2'26

GE Vernova (GEV)

Q2'26 earnings call · held July 22, 2026 · compared with the Q1'26 call · management-credibility review
7/12
Disclosure score
3 high, 4 medium, 1 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story everyone's missing: GEV is pulling forward years of cash flow through slot reservation deposits that make H1 numbers look incredible but create a massive H2 cliff. Management buried the admission that H2 FCF will be 'substantially lower', which means the $11.5-12.5B guide likely sees 90% of cash in H1. The Street's celebrating 116 GW of turbines under contract, but the binding constraint isn't GEV's capacity, it's grid infrastructure and EPC availability, which is why 2029 slots aren't selling. Most revealing quote: 'we expect our free cash flow in the first half to be substantially higher than the second half', translation: we're eating our seed corn. My view changes if they start disclosing receivables quality and H2 FCF holds above $2B.

The 30-second version

  • The sleeper: Cash flow is front-loaded and unsustainable; $5.1B Q2 FCF driven entirely by $6.4B working capital benefit from slot reservations that won't repeat
  • The obvious: Gas turbine demand is insatiable with 116 GW under contract, but the binding constraint isn't capacity
  • The vanishing metric: Management stopped disclosing DSO and specific receivables growth after highlighting it for years

What changed this quarter

MetricQ1'26Q2'26Change
Revenue$9.1B (+7% YoY)$11.9B (+12% YoY)+500 bps acceleration
Adjusted EPSNot disclosedNot disclosedStill hiding EPS
Adjusted EBITDA$896M (9.8% margin)$1.2B (10.5% margin)+70 bps margin expansion
Free Cash Flow$4.8B (driven by $5.3B working capital)$5.1B (driven by $6.4B working capital)Quality deteriorating
Power Revenue$3.8B (+10% YoY)$4.4B (+14% YoY)+400 bps growth acceleration
Power EBITDA Margin16.3%18.8%+250 bps sequential expansion
Electrification Revenue$2.8B (+29% organic)$3.7B (+29% organic)Growth rate holding
Electrification EBITDA Margin17.8%18.4%+60 bps sequential
Wind Revenue$1.4B (-25% YoY)$1.3B (-11% YoY)Decline moderating
Wind EBITDA Loss-$382M-$275M$107M improvement

Accountability tracked

7 new promises made5 narrative shifts flagged7 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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