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Call sheet · Q1'26

First Solar (FSLR)

Q1'26 earnings call · held April 30, 2026 · compared with the Q4'25 call · management-credibility review
9/12
Disclosure score
3 medium, 3 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story everyone's missing: CURE is cannibalizing FSLR's pricing power-they're giving away what should be $0.03/watt premiums in base pricing to win deals, undermining the entire $600M adjuster narrative. The obvious headline is record Q1 revenue, but the real binding constraint is ASP pressure despite unprecedented trade protection. Management admitted 'half of recent bookings had no adders' because they're pricing full technology attributes upfront. Most revealing quote: 'We are pricing the technology we will deliver' instead of charging premiums-that's margin compression disguised as strategy. My view changes if Q2 bookings show sustained pricing above $0.36/watt or if they actually shut down Malaysia/Vietnam capacity instead of burning $135M annually waiting for policy clarity.

The 30-second version

  • The real story: CURE is already cannibalizing their own pricing power
  • Record Q1 revenue driven by India surge, but it's masking U.S. ASP pressure
  • Malaysia/Vietnam capacity decision pushed to 232 tariff outcome-classic option value destruction

What changed this quarter

MetricQ4'25Q1'26Change
Net Sales$1.7B (Q4 2025, +24% YoY)$1.0B (Q1 2026, +24% YoY)Record Q1, ahead of $900M-950M implied by guidance
Gross MarginQ4 2025: Not disclosed47% (vs 41% prior year)+6 percentage points YoY expansion
Adjusted EBITDA$2.6-2.8B (2025 FY guidance)$520M (above $400-500M Q1 preview)Beat high end of preview range
Cash Position$2.9B gross cash (Q4 2025)$2.4B cash equivalents/securitiesDown $500M but at high end of target range
Contracted Backlog50.1 GW at $15B (Q4 2025)47.9 GW at $14.4BDown 2.2 GW after 3.8 GW sold, 1.7 GW booked
U.S. Facility UtilizationNot disclosed96%Near full utilization disclosed
International Facility UtilizationLow utilizationSignificantly reduced (Malaysia/Vietnam)Continued underutilization despite costs
Module Production17.5 GW (2025 FY)4.3 GW (Q1)3 GW U.S., 1.3 GW international split
India Sales VolumeStrong Q4 mentioned1 GW at $0.20/wattRecord Q1 India sales
U.S. Bookings ASP$0.364/watt (Q4)$0.34-0.35/watt inclusive of adjustersDown ~$0.01-0.02 despite trade tailwinds

Accountability tracked

7 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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This is a free preview. The full write-up and promise ledger are published to subscribers on Substack.
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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