Earnings Call Intelligence Subscribe
Home › Call Sheets › FCX › Q2'26
Call sheet · Q2'26

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)

Q2'26 earnings call · held July 23, 2026 · compared with the Q1'26 call · management-credibility review
8/12
Disclosure score
1 high, 3 medium, 2 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is that Freeport's U.S. operations are becoming a cash flow monster while everyone obsesses over Grasberg: 2.4x operating income growth, Morenci mining rates up 30%, and a virtually free 800M lb/year copper mine emerging from their leach innovation that could add $500M+ annual EBITDA. Yes, Grasberg is recovering on schedule, but the real constraint isn't Indonesia anymore, it's management's inability to commit to anything specific on their highest-value initiatives. When Kathleen says the leach additives are showing 'multiple effectiveness' but won't give a single production number, that's either sandbagging or they don't actually know. My view changes if they provide concrete leach production targets with timelines, not more 'near term' nonsense.

The 30-second version

  • The America's leach innovation is working and could add a new 800M lb/year copper mine at virtually no capital cost
  • Grasberg ramp-up is on track but the real story is U.S. operations delivered 2.4x more operating income YoY
  • Baghdad expansion cost ballooned 30% to $4.5B but management buried this in prepared remarks

What changed this quarter

MetricQ1'26Q2'26Change
Copper Sales (million lbs)Q1: 903M (-5% YoY)Q2: Better than forecast (specific number not disclosed)Sequential improvement but no YoY comp given
Net Income (H1 consolidated)H1 2025: Not specifiedH1 2026: +65% YoY+65% surge YoY
U.S. Operations Operating IncomeH1 2025 baselineH1 2026: 2.4x prior year+140% explosion
Unit Net Cash CostsQ1: $1.95/lb guidanceQ2: $1.90/lb expected FY26-5 cents improvement
Grasberg Block Cave ProductionApril: 34k tons/dayJune: 69k tons/dayDoubled in quarter
Morenci Mining Rate5-year average baselineQ2: +30% vs 5-year average+30% breakout
Cerro Verde Ownership~53%55%++2% via $300M open market buys
Capital Expenditure (2026E)$4.3B guidance$4.3B maintainedFlat despite project additions
Capital Expenditure (2027E)April: $4.5B$4.8B+$300M increase
Baghdad Expansion CapEx2023: ~$3.5B estimate$4.5B preliminary+30% cost inflation

Accountability tracked

8 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
Read the full FCX Q2'26 report Subscribe
About Research ↗Call SheetsCredibility IndexMissed PromisesScreens13F BooksData & InstitutionalPrivacyTermsSubscribe
This is a free preview. The full write-up and promise ledger are published to subscribers on Substack.
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

Follow what management promises next

Get free previews of our earnings-call research: the key changes, management scores, and questions worth investigating. Subscribe for full call sheets and deeper analysis.

Subscriptions are managed by Substack. If the form does not load, subscribe directly. Or follow the RSS feed.