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Call sheet · Q2'26

Exelon (EXC)

Q2'26 earnings call · held July 30, 2026 · compared with the Q1'26 call · management-credibility review
9/12
Disclosure score
2 high, 3 medium, 1 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is PJM's capacity market is 2.4x more broken than the headline price suggests, with ComEd's simulated $777/MW-day clearing price exposing a crisis that will force utility-owned generation whether states want it or not. The 500MW battery filing is positive but the 25% data center pipeline cut reveals management's TSA strategy is working too well, filtering out growth along with speculation. The binding constraint isn't regulatory approval or capital, it's that there's literally not enough generation to meet demand at any price PJM allows. Most revealing quote: 'If critical work is deferred for too long, customers ultimately pay the price,' which is management warning that their affordability-driven deferrals will backfire. My view changes if PJM capacity additions accelerate above 2GW annually or if states approve utility generation at scale.

The 30-second version

  • The $777 ComEd clearing price simulation reveals PJM capacity crisis is 2.4x worse than the capped price suggests
  • 500MW battery project filed but data center pipeline cut by 25% as TSAs filter out speculation
  • BGE filing delayed projects and PECO's voluntary separation program signal management is stretching to avoid rate shock

What changed this quarter

MetricQ1'26Q2'26Change
Adjusted Operating EPS$0.91 (vs $0.92 YoY)$0.43 (vs $0.39 YoY)Sequential Q2 seasonality as expected
Full Year EPS Guidance$2.81-$2.91 reaffirmed$2.81-$2.91 maintainedNo change despite regulatory headwinds
Q3 Earnings Shaping47% of full year in H127% expected for Q3Guided Q3 below normal due to strike impact
Data Center Pipeline43GW total cited previously36GW (11GW high probability)25% reduction as TSAs filter speculation
TSA Collateral SecuredNot disclosed$1B backing 4GWFirst disclosure of real money commitment
Weather Events at ComEd YTDNot specified16 major eventsMore than in past two decades
PJM Capacity Auction Shortfall6.5GW shortfall last auction6.8GW shortfall300MW worse despite price cap
PJM Peak Demand JulyHistorical peaks lower168GW recordEmergency procedures activated
Power Prices During Peak$80/MWh normal$800/MWh spike10x surge during July heat
2026 Debt Financing Complete43% complete in Q186% completeAccelerated execution reducing rate risk

Accountability tracked

8 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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