Etsy (ETSY)

The sleeper story is Depop disposal unlocking focused execution - Kruti gets $1.2B and removes a 350 bps margin drag to prove the single-marketplace thesis works. The obvious headline is first growth in 4 years, but this is FX-driven with purchase frequency still declining and habitual buyers contracting 8.6%. The binding constraint isn't traffic or AI features, it's frequency - they can acquire buyers but can't make them come back more often. Most revealing quote: 'We expect that the full impact of these efforts will take time to translate into stronger sustainable growth' - a timeline regression from prior quarter confidence. My view changes if they show actual frequency improvement in Q1 or demonstrate agentic commerce scales beyond 1% of traffic with measurable economics.