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Call sheet · Q1'26

Energy Transfer (ET)

Q1'26 earnings call · held May 5, 2026 · compared with the Q4'25 call · management-credibility review
11/12
Disclosure score
3 medium, 6 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is data center power demand exploding from 190 MMcf/d to 700+ MMcf/d in one quarter, positioning ET as the infrastructure backbone for AI power generation while everyone focuses on traditional midstream metrics. Management delivered a $500M Q1 beat but the binding constraint is now capital allocation across 150+ data center opportunities with growth CapEx jumping to $5.9B and project returns getting diluted by scale requirements. McCrea's most revealing quote: 'Nobody is better positioned... we're chasing every opportunity' suggests they're in land-grab mode prioritizing market share over returns. My view changes if they start disclosing data center contract pricing premiums versus traditional power sales and provide IRR thresholds for capital allocation decisions.

The 30-second version

  • The sleeper story: Data center power demand is becoming a major revenue driver while everyone focuses on traditional midstream
  • Winter optimization windfall captured full-year target in Q1, but management playing coy on sustainability
  • CapEx guidance jump to $5.5-5.9B signals project acceleration, but returns timeline getting pushed out

What changed this quarter

MetricQ4'25Q1'26Change
Adjusted EBITDA$4.2B (Q4 2025, +8% YoY)$4.9B (Q1 2026, +20% YoY)+$700M sequential surge
DCF$2.0B (Q4 2025)$2.7B (Q1 2026, +17% YoY)+$700M sequential jump
Growth CapEx Guidance$5.0-5.5B (2026)$5.5-5.9B (2026)+$500M midpoint increase
EBITDA Guidance$17.45-17.85B (2026)$18.2-18.6B (2026)+$750M midpoint raise
NGL Segment EBITDA$1.1B (Q4 2025)$1.2B (Q1 2026, +23% YoY)+$100M sequential gain
Midstream EBITDA$720M (Q4 2025, +2% YoY)$887M (Q1 2026, -4% YoY)+$167M sequential but YoY decline
Crude Oil EBITDA$722M (Q4 2025, -5% YoY)$869M (Q1 2026, +17% YoY)+$147M sequential recovery
Interstate Gas EBITDA$523M (Q4 2025, +6% YoY)$519M (Q1 2026, +1% YoY)Flat sequential performance
Intrastate Gas EBITDA$355M (Q4 2025, +35% YoY)$437M (Q1 2026, +27% YoY)+$82M sequential acceleration
Permian Midstream VolumesNot disclosed (Q4 2025)Up 8% YoY (Q1 2026)Strong Permian growth disclosed

Accountability tracked

8 new promises made5 narrative shifts flagged7 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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