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Call sheet · Q4'25

Eversource Energy (ES)

Q4'25 earnings call · held February 13, 2026 · compared with the Q3'25 call · management-credibility review
10/12
Disclosure score
3 medium, 3 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is the $26.5B capital plan that shifted from discretionary growth to mandatory infrastructure replacement. Electric distribution jumped $696M and 25% of gas growth comes from safety regulations. This isn't choice anymore, it's regulatory force that creates predictable rate base but also predictable financing pressure. Aquarion decision March 25 creates a financing fork: $1.6B of relief or $88M rate case, but the $800M-$1.1B equity dilution is locked either way. Revolution Wind COD by H2 2026 finally ends the offshore nightmare, but storm securitization cash won't arrive until Q3 2027. The binding constraint is regulatory approval timing, not capital allocation. 'This year, we are also looking at how we thoughtfully and responsibly use artificial intelligence' sounds like everyone else's AI theater. My view changes if Connecticut regulators accelerate the storm decision or the Aquarion remand produces an approval, which would eliminate most 2026-2027 financing risk.

The 30-second version

  • The sleeper story: $26.5B capital plan hides a forced March in Massachusetts distribution
  • Revolution Wind COD by H2 2026 ends the offshore nightmare, but storm cost securitization won't hit until Q3 2027
  • Aquarion decision March 25 creates a financing fork: $1.6B proceeds or a forced $88M rate case

What changed this quarter

MetricQ3'25Q4'25Change
Non-GAAP EPS$4.57 (2024 full year)$4.76 (+4.2% YoY)Delivered at high end of revised guidance
Electric Transmission Earnings$2.30 per share (2024)$2.09 per share-$0.21 decline year over year
Electric Distribution Earnings$1.77 per share (2024)$1.80 per share+$0.03 modest improvement
Natural Gas Distribution Earnings$0.81 per share (2024)$0.97 per share+$0.16 strong growth from rate increases
Five-Year Capital Plan$24.2B through 2029$26.5B through 2030+$2.3B increase, $1.5B in overlapping period
Electric Distribution CapExNot specified for comparison$11B+ over five years+$696M increase from prior plan
Natural Gas Distribution CapExNot specified for comparison$7B over five years+$523M increase, 25% from mandatory safety regs
Rate Base GrowthNot specified8.3% compound through 2030Accelerating growth trajectory
FFO-to-Debt Improvement300+ bps improvement in 2025400+ bps improvement at Moody'sBetter than expected credit metric enhancement
2026 EPS GuidanceNo prior guidance$4.80 to $4.95Modest growth, includes Aquarion if no sale

Accountability tracked

8 new promises made5 narrative shifts flagged7 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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