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Call sheet · Q1'26

Eversource Energy (ES)

Q1'26 earnings call · held 2026-05-07 · compared with the Q4'25 call · management-credibility review
10/12
Disclosure score
2 medium, 4 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story everyone's missing: FERC created an $880M sword of Damocles hanging over ES, but the real catalyst is $2B in storm cost securitizations hitting within 18 months that will dramatically improve cash flow metrics. The obvious headline is the guidance cut, but the binding constraint has been these stranded storm costs killing their balance sheet ratios for years. Most revealing quote: 'We do not have a gun to our head anymore' on Aquarion - shows management finally operating from position of strength rather than desperation. My view changes if the FERC settlement talks fail and they're forced to book the full retroactive refund, which could easily double or triple the current $44M charge and crater 2026-2027 earnings.

The 30-second version

  • FERC ROE disaster creates $880M refund overhang while management goes full legal warfare
  • Storm cost securitization becomes the real earnings catalyst with $2B coming in 12-18 months
  • Aquarion sale still dangling with June 14 deadline, but they're no longer desperate

What changed this quarter

MetricQ4'25Q1'26Change
GAAP EPS$1.12 (Q4 2025)$1.61 (Q1 2026)+44% QoQ, driven by transmission investments
Non-GAAP EPS$1.12 (Q4 2025)$1.73 (Q1 2026) excluding FERC charge+54% QoQ after backing out FERC hit
Gas Segment EPSNot broken out Q4+$0.18 improvement vs prior yearLargest driver of quarterly beat
Transmission EPS$2.09 (full year 2025)+$0.06 vs prior year Q1Despite FERC headwinds, still growing
FERC Base ROE10.57%9.57%-100 bps, $70M annual earnings hit
2026 Guidance Range$4.80-$4.95$4.57-$4.72-18 cents midpoint due to FERC + Aquarion
FFO-to-Debt S&POver 400 bps improvement in 202514.2%Still 100+ bps above downgrade threshold
FFO-to-Debt Moody'sOver 400 bps improvement in 202514.5%Maintaining strong cushion
Q1 CapEx$4B full year 2025$800M through MarchOn track for $5.1B full year 2026
Storm Cost Recovery Expected$1.5B Connecticut only$2B Connecticut + New Hampshire combined+$470M from NH securitization law

Accountability tracked

8 new promises made5 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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